UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson
Sunrise, USA
27 Apr 2019
Heavyweight
VS
96%
Hardy
4%
Smoliakov
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:15
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Hardy
Hardy is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 29 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Hardy has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.
Hardy has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hardy's chin rating of 30 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smoliakov has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Hardy
Smoliakov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
74"
37+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Hardy
Smoliakov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
29.7
1.2
47.8
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
76
Momentum Score
0
Hardy
Smoliakov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
0.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
42%
8.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
1
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
2Clinch0
8Ground0
Hardy
Smoliakov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Hardy
Smoliakov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
30
44
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/12 fights
Chin rating based on
3/12 fights
Hardy
Smoliakov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
Hardy
Smoliakov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Hardy
Smoliakov
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HardySmoliakov
Strike Zones
Hardy
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedSmoliakov
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Hardy targets the head (86% of attacks) — Smoliakov absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Smoliakov targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Hardy
RND
Smoliakov
0/0R00/0
Hardy · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Smoliakov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 1.9WinLossTrend
Hardy · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Serghei SpivacRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R1
Tai TuivasaRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Marcin TyburaRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal · 2020-12
W · KO · R2
Maurice GreeneRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hall vs. Silva · 2020-10
W · Dec · R3
Yorgan De CastroRating 4.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
Smoliakov · Last 3
L · KO · R1
Greg HardyRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
L · KO · R1
Cyril AskerRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · Sub · R2
Luis HenriqueRating 2.8Submission
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko · 2016-07