UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson
Ottawa, Canada
18 Jun 2016
Lightweight
VS
54%
Aubin-Mercier
46%
Gouti
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 2:28
OA
Olivier Aubin-Mercier
"The Canadian Gangster"
11 – 5
5'9"70" reachSouthpaw37 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 19
TG
Thibault Gouti
"GT"
12 – 5
Knockout Artist2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox72" reach5'10"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aubin-Mercier

This is a genuine toss-up — Aubin-Mercier at 54% vs Gouti at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Gouti has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Striking split: Gouti throws more volume but Aubin-Mercier connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Gouti has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
37+
Age
39
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.4
16.4
49.0
Performance Avg
42.7
43
Quality of Victory
60
61
Momentum Score
33
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
35%
2.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
3.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
90
50
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/16 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
4
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aubin-Mercier
Gouti
Striking2.6 / 10.0Volume3.5 / 0.3Grappling5.3 / 0.0Wrestling3.7 / 0.0Submission5.7 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 7.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
5.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
3.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.3
Aubin-Mercier
Strike Zones
Gouti
Aubin-Mercier
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Gouti
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aubin-Mercier targets the head (100% of attacks) — Gouti absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aubin-Mercier
RND
Gouti
0/0R00/0

Aubin-Mercier · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7
0105.5L5.2W5.5W4.5W6.5L5.5W6.5W4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L7.1L2014-042015-082016-122018-072019-07
WinLossTrend

Gouti · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0101.5L4.0L1.5L5.0W5.5L6.2L2016-022016-062016-082017-092018-022018-10
WinLossTrend

Aubin-Mercier · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 240: Holloway vs. Edgar · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC 231: Holloway vs. Ortega · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R1
Evan DunhamRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Anthony Rocco MartinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09

Gouti · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nasrat HaqparastRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Sage NorthcuttRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · KO · R1
Andrew HolbrookRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Chad LapriseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
L · Sub · R3
Olivier Aubin-MercierRating 4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs Thompson · 2016-06

News & Media

Olivier Aubin-Mercier · Thibault Gouti
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