UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer
Las Vegas, USA
6 Jun 2020
Featherweight
VS
47%
Stamann
53%
Kelleher
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
This is a genuine toss-up — Stamann at 47% vs Kelleher at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Kelleher has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Striking split: Kelleher throws more volume but Stamann connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Stamann's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Stamann
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
5'6"
64"
Reach
+66"
36+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Stamann
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.0
40.8
38.0
Performance Avg
44.5
30
Quality of Victory
43
53
Momentum Score
61
Stamann
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.7
50%
Strike Accuracy
44%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
25
Head
8
3
Body
6
2
Leg
7
RangeRange
26Distance19
3Clinch2
1Ground0
Stamann
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Stamann
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
5
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/29 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Stamann
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
61
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Stamann
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
14%
63%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
3
6
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Stamann
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
2.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
7.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
StamannKelleher
Strike Zones
Stamann
Attacking
30 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
30 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Stamann targets the head (83% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the head (38% of attacks) — Stamann absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Stamann
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
Stamann · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Stamann · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Da'Mon BlackshearRating 2.5Submission
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L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
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