UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
San Antonio, USA
25 Mar 2023
Featherweight
VS
73%
Pineda
27%
Lutz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:50
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
Pineda is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Pineda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pineda's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Pineda
Lutz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+72"
40
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pineda
Lutz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
19.7
47.4
Performance Avg
25.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
85
Momentum Score
17
Pineda
Lutz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
40%
2.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pineda
Lutz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Pineda
Lutz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/45 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Pineda
Lutz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
17
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pineda
Lutz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pineda
Lutz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
PinedaLutz
Strike Zones
Pineda
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedLutz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pineda targets the head (86% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Lutz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pineda
RND
Lutz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Lutz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
Andre FiliUFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
Lutz · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Daniel PinedaRating 3.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Kevin AguilarRating 4.5Decision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05