METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
San Antonio, USA
25 Mar 2023
Featherweight
VS
73%
Pineda
27%
Lutz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:50
★ Official Result
Daniel PinedawinsSubmissionR2 · 2:50
def. Tucker Lutz · UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Pineda
→
Actual result
Pineda wins
Submission · R2
Pre-fight analysis
Pineda is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Risk flags
Pineda's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
PinedaLutz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Pineda
Lutz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+72"
41
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Pineda
Lutz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
52.9
19.7
47.4
Performance Avg
25.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
85
Momentum Score
17
Pineda
Lutz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.8
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
8.2
Style: Pressure
0.8
0.8
Style: Volume
8.5
1 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
2
0
Body
1
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Pineda
Lutz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
6.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
4.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
8.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
4
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pineda
Lutz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/45 fights
Chin rating based on
4/16 fights
Pineda
Lutz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
17
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Pineda
Lutz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pineda
Lutz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
8.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
PinedaLutz
Strike Zones
Pineda
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedLutz
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pineda targets the head (86% of attacks) — Lutz absorbs 86% of strikes there
🎯Lutz targets the head (50% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pineda
RND
Lutz
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Hernandez vs. Pereira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodDecision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresDecision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
Upcoming
Andre FiliUFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · 2021-06
Lutz · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Melsik BaghdasaryanDecision
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · 2023-07
L · Sub · R2
Daniel PinedaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vera vs. Sandhagen · 2023-03
L · Dec · R3
Pat SabatiniDecision
UFC Fight Night: Vieira vs. Tate · 2021-11
W · Dec · R3
Kevin AguilarDecision
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05