UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Lightweight
VS
93%
Denis
7%
Prepolec
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:35
CFR 71
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Denis
Denis is a strong favourite at 93% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 66 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Denis has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Denis has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Prepolec has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Denis
Prepolec
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
73"+
Reach
70"
30+
Age
36
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Denis
Prepolec
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
70.9
5.0
62.5
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
91
Momentum Score
0
Denis
Prepolec
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.7
0.6
60%
Strike Accuracy
33%
7.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
11
10
Body
1
5
Leg
0
RangeRange
22Distance10
22Clinch2
0Ground0
Denis
Prepolec
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Denis
Prepolec
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
62
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/28 fights
Denis
Prepolec
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
91
0
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Denis
Prepolec
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Denis
Prepolec
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
9.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
1.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
DenisPrepolec
Strike Zones
Denis
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedPrepolec
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Denis targets the head (66% of attacks) — Prepolec absorbs 66% of strikes there
🎯Prepolec targets the head (92% of attacks) — Denis absorbs 92% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Denis
RND
Prepolec
0/0R00/0
Denis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Prepolec · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Denis · Last 5
Upcoming
Paddy PimblettUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · KO · R2
Dan HookerRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · Sub · R2
Mauricio RuffyRating 6.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Sub · R2
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.2Submission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
Prepolec · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Drew DoberRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Benoit Saint DenisRating 4.5Submission
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs. Gaethje · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Nordine TalebRating 5.5Decision
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