UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Las Vegas, USA
19 Dec 2020
Welterweight
VS
45%
Thompson
55%
Neal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Neal
This is a genuine toss-up — Thompson at 45% vs Neal at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Neal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Thompson's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Neal has a chin rating of 38 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Thompson
Neal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"
Reach
75"
43
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Thompson
Neal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
46.3
55.8
48.9
Performance Avg
51.7
43
Quality of Victory
48
45
Momentum Score
72
Thompson
Neal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
2.2
47%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
31
7
Body
1
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
48Distance31
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Thompson
Neal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thompson
Neal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
38
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/26 fights
Chin rating based on
14/24 fights
Thompson
Neal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
72
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R4
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Thompson
Neal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
75%
6
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Thompson
Neal
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.4
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
ThompsonNeal
Strike Zones
Thompson
Attacking
49 landedAbsorbing
33 absorbedNeal
Attacking
33 landedAbsorbing
49 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Thompson targets the head (82% of attacks) — Neal absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Neal targets the head (94% of attacks) — Thompson absorbs 94% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Thompson
RND
Neal
0/0R00/0
Thompson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Neal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Thompson · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gabriel BonfimRating 7.2Decision
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L · KO · R1
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