METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Lightweight
VS
28%
Oki
72%
Sousa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:12
★ Official Result
Manoel SousawinsKO/TKOR3 · 4:12
def. Bolaji Oki · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Sousa
→
Actual result
Sousa wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Sousa is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sousa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Sousa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Oki's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
OkiSousa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Oki
Sousa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
30
Age
+29
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oki
Sousa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.1
78.5
31.0
Performance Avg
70.0
25
Quality of Victory
50
40
Momentum Score
100
Oki
Sousa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.6
3.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
33
8
Body
10
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
31Distance46
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Oki
Sousa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oki
Sousa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/14 fights
Chin rating based on
1/15 fights
Oki
Sousa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
Oki
Sousa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Oki
Sousa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
OkiSousa
Strike Zones
Oki
Attacking
32 landedAbsorbing
48 absorbedSousa
Attacking
48 landedAbsorbing
32 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Oki targets the head (56% of attacks) — Sousa absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Sousa targets the head (69% of attacks) — Oki absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Oki
RND
Sousa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Oki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Oki · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Manoel SousaRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Mason JonesRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02
Sousa · Last 1
W · KO · R3
Bolaji OkiRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03