UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos
Las Vegas, USA
14 Mar 2026
Lightweight
VS
28%
Oki
72%
Sousa
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:12
Bolaji
Bolaji Oki
"The Zulu Warrior"
10 – 4
5'10"73" reachOrthodox30 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 31
Manoel
Manoel Sousa
"Manumito"
14 – 1
Knockout Artist28 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 79

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Sousa

Sousa is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 47 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Sousa has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Sousa has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Oki's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oki
Sousa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
30
Age
+28
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oki
Sousa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.1
78.5
31.0
Performance Avg
70.0
25
Quality of Victory
50
40
Momentum Score
100
Oki
Sousa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
3.8
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
18
Head
33
8
Body
10
6
Leg
5
RangeRange
31Distance46
1Clinch2
0Ground0
Oki
Sousa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Oki
Sousa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
100
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
5/14 fights
Chin rating based on
1/15 fights
Oki
Sousa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
Oki
Sousa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oki
Sousa
Striking0.8 / 10.0Volume8.8 / 2.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.2 / 10.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
Oki
Strike Zones
Sousa
Oki
Attacking
18HEAD8BODY6LEGS32 landed
Absorbing
33HEAD10BODY5LEGS48 absorbed
Sousa
Attacking
33HEAD10BODY5LEGS48 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD8BODY6LEGS32 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oki targets the head (56% of attacks) — Sousa absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Sousa targets the head (69% of attacks) — Oki absorbs 69% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oki
RND
Sousa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Oki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.8W2.8L5.6W3.7L6.2L2024-022024-092025-052025-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Oki · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Manoel SousaRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R2
Mason JonesRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Michael Aswell Jr.Rating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Timmy CuambaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · 2024-02

Sousa · Last 1

W · KO · R3
Bolaji OkiRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03

News & Media

Bolaji Oki · Manoel Sousa
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