UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2
Las Vegas, USA
6 Dec 2025
Lightweight
VS
45%
Dawson
55%
Torres
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:25
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Torres
This is a genuine toss-up — Dawson at 45% vs Torres at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Torres has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Torres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Dawson's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dawson
Torres
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
5'10"
72"
Reach
+73"
32
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Switch
Dawson
Torres
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.1
76.9
57.5
Performance Avg
68.6
39
Quality of Victory
59
100
Momentum Score
100
Dawson
Torres
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
3.4
53%
Strike Accuracy
60%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
5
2
Body
4
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance8
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Dawson
Torres
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.3
/ 10
1.6
/ 10
3.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.1
4.2
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
5
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Dawson
Torres
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/27 fights
Chin rating based on
7/20 fights
Dawson
Torres
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
Dawson
Torres
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
58%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
4
5
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Dawson
Torres
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.7
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
4.2
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.7
DawsonTorres
Strike Zones
Dawson
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTorres
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Dawson targets the head (50% of attacks) — Torres absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Torres targets the head (56% of attacks) — Dawson absorbs 56% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Dawson
RND
Torres
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Dawson · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Torres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Dawson · Last 5
W · Sub · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · Dec · R3
Diego FerreiraRating 5.5Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · KO · R2
Rafa GarciaRating 6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Joe SoleckiRating 5.2Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Torres · Last 5
Upcoming
Rafael FizievUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Grant DawsonRating 6.5KO/TKO
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
W · KO · R1
Drew DoberRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · KO · R1
Ignacio BahamondesRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Sub · R1
Chris DuncanRating 6.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02