UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
Porto Alegre, Brazil
22 Feb 2015
Bantamweight
VS
55%
Alcantara
45%
Saenz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Alcantara
This is a genuine toss-up — Alcantara at 55% vs Saenz at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Alcantara has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Striking split: Alcantara throws more volume but Saenz connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alcantara's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Saenz has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alcantara
Saenz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
66"
45
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Alcantara
Saenz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
13.7
48.0
Performance Avg
35.0
41
Quality of Victory
25
49
Momentum Score
75
Alcantara
Saenz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
46%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
3
2
Body
5
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
6Distance0
0Clinch10
2Ground3
Alcantara
Saenz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alcantara
Saenz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
30
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
10/20 fights
Alcantara
Saenz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
75
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Alcantara
Saenz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alcantara
Saenz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
AlcantaraSaenz
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSaenz
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alcantara targets the head (75% of attacks) — Saenz absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Saenz targets the body (38% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 38% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alcantara
RND
Saenz
0/0R00/0
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Saenz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Alcantara · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
Saenz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Jonathan MartinezRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · 2020-08
L · KO · R1
Marlon VeraRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Pettis · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Henry BrionesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 5.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Dec · R3
Augusto MendesRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01