The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2018
Welterweight
VS
96%
Means
4%
Rainey
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Means
Means is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Means has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 41 points.
Striking split: Means throws more volume but Rainey connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Means's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Rainey has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Means
Rainey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Means
Rainey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
36.5
1.6
45.2
Performance Avg
0.0
41
Quality of Victory
0
40
Momentum Score
0
Means
Rainey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.4
51%
Strike Accuracy
52%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
6
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch0
14Ground0
Means
Rainey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Means
Rainey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
6
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/50 fights
Chin rating based on
2/18 fights
Means
Rainey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
Means
Rainey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
53%
0%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Means
Rainey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MeansRainey
Strike Zones
Means
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedRainey
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Means targets the head (89% of attacks) — Rainey absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Rainey targets the head (100% of attacks) — Means absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Means
RND
Rainey
0/0R00/0
Means · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Rainey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 2.7WinLossTrend
Means · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Court McGeeRating 1.7Submission
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
L · KO · R1
Uros MedicRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
W · KO · R3
Andre FialhoRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · 2023-09
L · Sub · R2
Alex MoronoRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
Rainey · Last 2
L · KO · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavy Hitters Finale · 2018-11
L · KO · R2
Muslim SalikhovRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04