UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2016
Light Heavyweight
VS
76%
Lima
24%
Hester
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:35
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lima
Lima is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 32 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lima has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Hester throws more volume but Lima connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lima's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hester has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lima
Hester
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
75"
Reach
+77"
40
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lima
Hester
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.3
15.3
53.8
Performance Avg
42.0
49
Quality of Victory
32
59
Momentum Score
61
Lima
Hester
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
1.7
60%
Strike Accuracy
42%
6.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.6
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
24
Head
0
1
Body
0
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
7Distance0
0Clinch0
22Ground0
Lima
Hester
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lima
Hester
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
44
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/32 fights
Chin rating based on
7/17 fights
Lima
Hester
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
61
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Lima
Hester
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
25%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lima
Hester
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.6
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
LimaHester
Strike Zones
Lima
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedHester
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lima targets the head (83% of attacks) — Hester absorbs 83% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lima
RND
Hester
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Lima · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Hester · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Lima · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R1
Derrick LewisRating 2.7KO/TKO
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
W · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Simon · 2023-04
W · Sub · R1
Andrei ArlovskiRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
L · Dec · R3
Blagoy IvanovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
Hester · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Marcos Rogerio de LimaRating 2.1Submission
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux · 2016-04
L · KO · R2
Vitor MirandaRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R2
Robert WhittakerRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bisping · 2014-11
W · Dec · R3
Antonio Braga NetoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
W · Dec · R3
Andy EnzRating 4.5Decision
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2 · 2014-02