UFC 77: Hostile Territory
Cincinnati, USA
20 Oct 2007
Middleweight
VS
49%
Okami
51%
MacDonald
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
YO
Yushin Okami
"Thunder"
34 – 12
6'2"75" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 17
JM
Jason MacDonald
"The Athlete"
25 – 16
Pressure Fighter2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox80" reach6'3"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: MacDonald

This is a genuine toss-up — Okami at 49% vs MacDonald at 51% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

MacDonald has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.

Striking split: Okami throws more volume but MacDonald connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Okami's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

MacDonald has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Okami
MacDonald
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+80"
44+
Age
50
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Okami
MacDonald
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.7
17.3
46.5
Performance Avg
48.8
33
Quality of Victory
53
78
Momentum Score
52
Okami
MacDonald
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.7
40%
Strike Accuracy
51%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
1Clinch0
4Ground0
Okami
MacDonald
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Okami
MacDonald
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
3 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
6
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
14/41 fights
Okami
MacDonald
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
52
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Okami
MacDonald
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
100%
4
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
4
10
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Okami
MacDonald
Striking4.2 / 4.2Volume6.5 / 0.9Grappling1.5 / 5.3Wrestling1.1 / 3.7Submission0.0 / 6.7Pressure4.0 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.7
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Okami
Strike Zones
MacDonald
Okami
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
MacDonald
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Okami targets the head (83% of attacks) — MacDonald absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯MacDonald targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Okami absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Okami
RND
MacDonald
0/0R00/0

Okami · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.5W5.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L4.2W4.5W4.5W2.1L4.0L5.2W4.5W4.5W1.5L2.1L4.5W5.5L2006-082008-032011-082017-092018-12
WinLossTrend

MacDonald · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0105.2W5.2W2.8L5.2W5.5L5.2W4.0L5.2W1.5L1.5L1.5L5.0W1.5L1.5L2006-102007-102008-122011-092012-05
WinLossTrend

Okami · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Dhiego LimaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 2.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03

MacDonald · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom LawlorRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FUEL TV: Korean Zombie vs Poirier · 2012-05
L · KO · R1
Alan BelcherRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ellenberger · 2011-09
W · Sub · R1
Ryan JensenRating 5
Submission
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
L · KO · R1
John SalterRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 113: Machida vs Shogun 2 · 2010-05
L · KO · R1
Nate QuarryRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 97: Redemption · 2009-04

News & Media

Yushin Okami · Jason MacDonald
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