UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Sydney, Australia
8 Feb 2025
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Thicknesse
57%
Topuria
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Colby
Colby Thicknesse
"Slickness"
9 – 1
5'7"69" reachOrthodox26 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 45
Aleksandre
Aleksandre Topuria
"El Conquistador"
7 – 1
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"
CFR 61

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Topuria

This is a genuine toss-up — Thicknesse at 43% vs Topuria at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Thicknesse throws more volume but Topuria connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Thicknesse
Topuria
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"+
Reach
68"
26+
Age
30
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Thicknesse
Topuria
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
45.3
60.8
41.7
Performance Avg
55.0
25
Quality of Victory
25
60
Momentum Score
100
Thicknesse
Topuria
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.5
34%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Thicknesse
Topuria
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Thicknesse
Topuria
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/10 fights
Chin rating based on
2/8 fights
Thicknesse
Topuria
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Thicknesse
Topuria
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Thicknesse
Topuria
Striking1.3 / 2.0Volume9.3 / 10.0Grappling2.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.7 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.0 / 3.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.0
9.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
10.0
Thicknesse
Strike Zones
Topuria
Thicknesse
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Topuria
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Thicknesse targets the head (100% of attacks) — Topuria absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Topuria targets the body (100% of attacks) — Thicknesse absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Thicknesse
RND
Topuria
0/0R00/0

Thicknesse · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0106.8L4.5W4.5W2025-022025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Topuria · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.6W2025-022025-11
WinLossTrend

Thicknesse · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Vince MoralesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Josias MusasaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandre TopuriaRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

Topuria · Last 2

W · Dec · R3
Bekzat AlmakhanRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Colby ThicknesseRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02

News & Media

Colby Thicknesse · Aleksandre Topuria
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