UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
87%
Marshall
13%
Brennan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Francis
Francis Marshall
"Fire"
10 – 3
5'9"72" reachOrthodox27 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Lucas
Lucas Brennan
"Skywalker"
11 – 3
Well-Rounded25 yrsSouthpaw72" reach5'10"
CFR 8

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Marshall

Marshall is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Marshall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Marshall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Marshall
Brennan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
27
Age
+25
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Marshall
Brennan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
7.8
46.7
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Marshall
Brennan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.4
32%
Strike Accuracy
29%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
2
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Marshall
Brennan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Marshall
Brennan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
1/14 fights
Marshall
Brennan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marshall
Brennan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Marshall
Brennan
Striking3.6 / 0.0Volume5.1 / 0.0Grappling3.2 / 0.0Wrestling2.2 / 0.0Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Marshall
Strike Zones
Brennan
Marshall
Attacking
12HEAD2BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY2LEGS6 absorbed
Brennan
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY2LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD2BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Marshall targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brennan absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Brennan targets the head (33% of attacks) — Marshall absorbs 33% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Marshall
RND
Brennan
0/0R00/0

Marshall · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.2W6.5L2.8L5.0W7.5L5.0W4.5W2022-122023-082025-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Marshall · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Lucas BrennanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Erik SilvaRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Mairon SantosRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

Brennan · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Francis MarshallRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04

News & Media

Francis Marshall · Lucas Brennan
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