METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Las Vegas, USA
25 Apr 2026
Lightweight
VS
87%
Marshall
13%
Brennan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Francis MarshallwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Lucas Brennan · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Marshall
→
Actual result
Marshall wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Marshall is a strong favourite at 87% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Marshall has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.
Marshall has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MarshallBrennan
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Marshall
Brennan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
72"
Reach
72"
27
Age
+26
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Marshall
Brennan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
7.8
46.7
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
60
Momentum Score
0
Marshall
Brennan
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.1
0.4
32%
Strike Accuracy
29%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
2
2
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
15Distance6
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Marshall
Brennan
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Marshall
Brennan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/13 fights
Chin rating based on
1/14 fights
Marshall
Brennan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
60
0
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Marshall
Brennan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Marshall
Brennan
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MarshallBrennan
Strike Zones
Marshall
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedBrennan
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Marshall targets the head (75% of attacks) — Brennan absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Brennan targets the head (33% of attacks) — Marshall absorbs 33% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Marshall
RND
Brennan
0/0R00/0
Marshall · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Marshall · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Lucas BrennanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Sub · R1
Erik SilvaRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Mairon SantosRating 7.5Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Dennis BuzukjaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · KO · R1
Isaac DulgarianRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08
Brennan · Last 1
L · Dec · R3
Francis MarshallRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04