UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao
Dublin, Ireland
19 Jul 2014
Middleweight
VS
61%
Troeng
39%
Smith
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Troeng
Troeng holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Smith has real paths to victory.
Key angles
Troeng has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.
Smith has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Smith has a chin rating of 26 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Troeng
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
+6'3"
Reach
75"
43+
Age
45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Troeng
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.2
10.9
42.4
Performance Avg
31.7
54
Quality of Victory
25
29
Momentum Score
45
Troeng
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
1.1
44%
Strike Accuracy
53%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
7
1
Body
4
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance2
1Clinch0
0Ground11
Troeng
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Troeng
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
94
26
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/23 fights
Chin rating based on
12/25 fights
Troeng
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
45
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Troeng
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Troeng
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.8
TroengSmith
Strike Zones
Troeng
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedSmith
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Troeng targets the head (50% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (54% of attacks) — Troeng absorbs 54% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Troeng
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
Troeng · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Troeng · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
L · Dec · R3
Trevor SmithRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Brandao · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Rafael NatalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09
W · Sub · R1
Adam CellaRating 5Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Makhmud MuradovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Zak CummingsRating 5.9Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05
L · Dec · R3
Andrew SanchezRating 5.5Decision
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