UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
56%
Bukauskas
44%
Cutelaba
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Modestas
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
6'3"76" reachSwitch32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 52
Ion
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
20 – 11
Well-Rounded32 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 41

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Bukauskas

This is a genuine toss-up — Bukauskas at 56% vs Cutelaba at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cutelaba has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cutelaba has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.5
40.5
49.0
Performance Avg
47.1
41
Quality of Victory
47
81
Momentum Score
26
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
1
Body
8
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance10
1Clinch6
0Ground0
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.2
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
7 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/27 fights
Chin rating based on
21/31 fights
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
26
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Striking5.0 / 5.4Volume5.2 / 3.6Grappling2.2 / 2.6Wrestling1.5 / 1.8Submission1.3 / 2.2Pressure5.3 / 6.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Bukauskas
Strike Zones
Cutelaba
Bukauskas
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD8BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Cutelaba
Attacking
3HEAD8BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (94% of attacks) — Cutelaba absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Cutelaba targets the body (50% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bukauskas
RND
Cutelaba
0/0R00/0

Bukauskas · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W3.0L6.5L3.7L5.5W4.5W3.9L5.9W5.0W4.8W5.7W5.2L4.5W2020-072023-022025-022026-05
WinLossTrend

Cutelaba · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.0L4.5W6.5L5.0W5.0W3.1L5.9W3.0L3.0L4.5W1.9L2.3L4.0L5.6W6.2L4.5W5.9W6.3L6.0W2016-062019-042022-052024-092026-03
WinLossTrend

Bukauskas · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Christian EdwardsRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita KrylovRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul CraigRating 5.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 4.8
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · KO · R1
Rafael CerqueiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02

Cutelaba · Last 5

Upcoming
Navajo Stirling
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Modestas BukauskasRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ibo AslanRating 5.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Modestas Bukauskas · Ion Cutelaba
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