METRICS GUIDE

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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena
Montreal, Canada
10 May 2025
Light Heavyweight
VS
58%
Bukauskas
42%
Cutelaba
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Modestas
Modestas Bukauskas
"The Baltic Gladiator"
20 – 7
6'3"76" reachSwitch32 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 56
Ion
Ion Cutelaba
"The Hulk"
20 – 11
Well-Rounded32 yrsSouthpaw75" reach6'1"
CFR 40
★ Official Result
Modestas BukauskaswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Ion Cutelaba · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Bukauskas
→
Actual result
Bukauskas wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Bukauskas at 58% vs Cutelaba at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Bukauskas's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cutelaba has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
BukauskasCutelaba
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
76"+
Reach
75"
32
Age
32
Switch
Stance
Southpaw
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.8
40.0
51.0
Performance Avg
46.2
42
Quality of Victory
47
94
Momentum Score
26
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.7
/ 10
5.3
/ 10
5.8
Style: Pressure
6.0
4.8
Style: Volume
3.6
4 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
1
Body
8
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
15Distance10
1Clinch6
0Ground0
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
1.1
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
4
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/27 fights
Chin rating based on
21/31 fights
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
26
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
56%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Bukauskas
Cutelaba
Striking5.7 / 5.3Volume4.8 / 3.6Grappling2.0 / 2.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.8Submission1.1 / 2.2Pressure5.8 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.3
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
4.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Bukauskas
Strike Zones
Cutelaba
Bukauskas
Attacking
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD8BODY5LEGS16 absorbed
Cutelaba
Attacking
3HEAD8BODY5LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD1BODY0LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (94% of attacks) — Cutelaba absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Cutelaba targets the body (50% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Bukauskas
RND
Cutelaba
0/0R00/0

Bukauskas · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Oumar Sy
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hooker vs. Parnasse · 2026-09
W · Dec · R3
Christian Edwards
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · KO · R3
Nikita Krylov
KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Paul Craig
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Ion Cutelaba
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05

Cutelaba · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Navajo Stirling
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Oumar Sy
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · Dec · R3
Modestas Bukauskas
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Sub · R1
Ibo Aslan
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Ivan Erslan
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Modestas Bukauskas · Ion Cutelaba
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