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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland
Las Vegas, USA
5 Feb 2022
Bantamweight
VS
43%
Johns
57%
Castaneda
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:38
Miles
Miles Johns
"Chapo"
15 – 5
5'7"68" reachOrthodox32 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 38
John
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21 – 8
Well-Rounded2-fight slide34 yrsSwitch71" reach5'6"
CFR 51
★ Official Result
John CastanedawinsSubmissionR3 · 1:38
def. Miles Johns · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Castaneda
→
Actual result
Castaneda wins
Submission · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Johns at 43% vs Castaneda at 57% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 13 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Johns's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
JohnsCastaneda
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Johns
Castaneda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"+
Height
5'6"
68"
Reach
+71"
32+
Age
34
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Johns
Castaneda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
37.8
51.0
45.6
Performance Avg
43.2
37
Quality of Victory
39
10
Momentum Score
71
Johns
Castaneda
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.5
/ 10
3.5
/ 10
4.8
Style: Pressure
5.0
5.7
Style: Volume
5.0
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
14
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance10
1Clinch5
0Ground2
Johns
Castaneda
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
2.5
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Johns
Castaneda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
72
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/29 fights
Johns
Castaneda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
71
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Johns
Castaneda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
50%
3
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johns
Castaneda
Striking5.5 / 3.5Volume5.7 / 5.0Grappling1.4 / 3.2Wrestling1.0 / 2.2Submission0.0 / 2.5Pressure4.8 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Johns
Strike Zones
Castaneda
Johns
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Castaneda
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johns targets the head (100% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Castaneda targets the head (82% of attacks) — Johns absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johns
RND
Castaneda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Johns · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Gianni Vazquez
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
L · Sub · R2
Daniel Marcos
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Jean Matsumoto
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Felipe Lima
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Douglas Silva de Andrade
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06

Castaneda · Last 5

Upcoming
Alatengheili
UFC Fight Night: Rosas Jr. vs. Barcelos · 2026-09
Upcoming
Mark Vologdin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris Gutierrez
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel Marcos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho Kang
Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

News & Media

Miles Johns · John Castaneda
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