UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Lightweight
VS
74%
Oliveira
26%
Felder
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:06
Charles
Charles Oliveira
"Do Bronxs"
37 – 11
5'10"74" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight win streakPressure Fighter
CFR 63
PF
Paul Felder
"The Irish Dragon"
17 – 6
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'11"
CFR 22

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Oliveira

Oliveira is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Felder throws more volume but Oliveira connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Oliveira's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Oliveira
Felder
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
74"+
Reach
70"
36+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Oliveira
Felder
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
63.3
21.7
58.6
Performance Avg
49.0
51
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
100
Oliveira
Felder
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
3.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
4 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
14
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
0Distance0
1Clinch4
0Ground13
Oliveira
Felder
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.0
4.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Oliveira
Felder
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/48 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Oliveira
Felder
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Oliveira
Felder
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
84%
56%
4
KO / TKO Wins
4
17
Submission Wins
1
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Oliveira
Felder
Striking3.0 / 5.6Volume2.7 / 4.8Grappling5.8 / 2.0Wrestling4.1 / 1.4Submission6.8 / 1.1Pressure8.0 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
4.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
6.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
2.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Oliveira
Strike Zones
Felder
Oliveira
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Felder
Attacking
14HEAD2BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Oliveira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Felder absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Felder targets the head (82% of attacks) — Oliveira absorbs 82% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Oliveira
RND
Felder
0/0R00/0

Oliveira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W5.5W1.9L1.5L5.0W5.2W2.0L5.5L5.5W5.2W5.0W5.5W2.6L5.0W4.0L2.8L5.0W2.8L5.5W5.4W5.4W5.2W5.2W5.4W5.3W5.0W5.9W6.6W6.6W4.1L6.0W7.1L5.3W3.9L6.2W5.6W2010-082014-062018-062021-122026-03
WinLossTrend

Felder · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W5.2W6.0L5.5L5.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.0W6.7W5.5L4.5W5.0W6.4L5.7L2014-102016-012017-072019-092020-11
WinLossTrend

Oliveira · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Max HollowayRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Sub · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ilia TopuriaRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
W · Dec · R5
Michael ChandlerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Arman TsarukyanRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04

Felder · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Dos Anjos · 2020-11
L · Dec · R5
Dan HookerRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. Hooker · 2020-02
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Dec · R3
James VickRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Mike PerryRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 226: Miocic vs. Cormier · 2018-07

News & Media

Charles Oliveira · Paul Felder
← Back to fights