UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
58%
Holtzman
42%
Patrick
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:42
SH
Scott Holtzman
"Hot Sauce"
14 – 6
5'9"69" reachOrthodox42 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 32
AP
Alan Patrick
"Nuguette"
15 – 4
Well-Rounded3-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'11"
CFR 23

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Holtzman

This is a genuine toss-up — Holtzman at 58% vs Patrick at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Patrick has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Holtzman
Patrick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+74"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holtzman
Patrick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
22.8
40.6
Performance Avg
41.4
32
Quality of Victory
32
53
Momentum Score
58
Holtzman
Patrick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
3
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
26Ground0
Holtzman
Patrick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
Patrick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Holtzman
Patrick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
58
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Holtzman
Patrick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Holtzman
Patrick
Striking2.5 / 3.1Volume5.7 / 7.5Grappling2.5 / 1.9Wrestling1.8 / 1.3Submission1.4 / 0.0Pressure3.6 / 3.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
Holtzman
Strike Zones
Patrick
Holtzman
Attacking
29HEAD1BODY1LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Patrick
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
29HEAD1BODY1LEGS31 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (94% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Patrick targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Holtzman
RND
Patrick
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Holtzman · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5W6.7L4.5W5.6L4.5W4.5W5.5W5.5L4.2W4.9W2.5L3.8L6.0L2015-082017-042019-082022-12
WinLossTrend

Patrick · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.0L6.2L2.8L2013-102016-032018-102022-05
WinLossTrend

Holtzman · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Holland · 2021-04
L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
W · R2
Dong Hyun MaRating 4.2
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

Patrick · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Upcoming
Mason Jones
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02

News & Media

Scott Holtzman · Alan Patrick
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