METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Las Vegas, USA
6 Oct 2018
Lightweight
VS
58%
Holtzman
42%
Patrick
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 3:42
★ Official Result
Scott HoltzmanwinsKO/TKOR3 · 3:42
def. Alan Patrick · UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Holtzman
→
Actual result
Holtzman wins
KO/TKO · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holtzman at 58% vs Patrick at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holtzman has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holtzman's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Patrick has a chin rating of 32 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HoltzmanPatrick
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holtzman
Patrick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'11"
69"
Reach
+74"
42+
Age
43
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holtzman
Patrick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.5
22.8
40.6
Performance Avg
41.4
32
Quality of Victory
32
53
Momentum Score
58
Holtzman
Patrick
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
0.7
51%
Strike Accuracy
39%
2.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.1
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
29
Head
3
1
Body
0
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
26Ground0
Holtzman
Patrick
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.9
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holtzman
Patrick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
32
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/20 fights
Chin rating based on
10/19 fights
Holtzman
Patrick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
53
58
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Holtzman
Patrick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
20%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holtzman
Patrick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.1
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.9
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.1
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.5
HoltzmanPatrick
Strike Zones
Holtzman
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedPatrick
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holtzman targets the head (94% of attacks) — Patrick absorbs 94% of strikes there
🎯Patrick targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holtzman absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holtzman
RND
Patrick
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holtzman · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Patrick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Holtzman · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
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L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Beneil DariushRating 2.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · 2020-08
W · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 4.9Decision
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W · R2
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Patrick · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · 2022-05
Upcoming
Mason JonesUFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Sakai · 2021-06
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2Decision
UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · 2020-09
L · KO · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Damir HadzovicRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02