UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
38%
Kowalkiewicz
62%
Lucindo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Karolina
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
16 – 10
5'3"64" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 33
Iasmin
Iasmin Lucindo
18 – 6
Well-Rounded24 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'3"
CFR 54

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lucindo

Lucindo holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Kowalkiewicz throws more volume but Lucindo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
64"
Reach
+66"
40
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
53.8
35.6
Performance Avg
46.5
28
Quality of Victory
30
40
Momentum Score
81
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
1.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
12
3
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance11
0Clinch3
0Ground6
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Striking0.9 / 1.4Volume8.1 / 7.8Grappling3.0 / 3.5Wrestling2.1 / 2.5Submission1.1 / 2.0Pressure2.2 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
Kowalkiewicz
Strike Zones
Lucindo
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD4BODY4LEGS20 absorbed
Lucindo
Attacking
12HEAD4BODY4LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD3BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (44% of attacks) — Lucindo absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Lucindo targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kowalkiewicz
RND
Lucindo
0/0R00/0

Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W5.9W5.5L1.5L4.5W4.5W2.3L5.5L6.7L6.5L1.6L5.2W4.5W4.7W4.5W6.4L6.8L4.6L2015-122017-102020-022023-102025-10
WinLossTrend

Lucindo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0105.8L4.5W5.5W4.5W5.2W6.6L4.6W2022-082023-082024-102025-08
WinLossTrend

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Lucindo · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 4.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Sub · R2
Polyana VianaRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

News & Media

Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Iasmin Lucindo
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