Karolina Kowalkiewicz vs Iasmin Lucindo — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

4 May 2024

Women's Strawweight

38%

Kowalkiewicz

62%

Lucindo

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

16 – 10

5'3"64" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 33

Iasmin Lucindo

18 – 6

Well-Rounded24 yrsOrthodox66" reach5'3"

CFR 54

★ Official Result

Iasmin LucindowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Lucindo

→

Actual result

Lucindo wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Lucindo holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

KowalkiewiczLucindo

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'3"

Height

5'3"

64"

Reach

+66"

Age

+24

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

32.7

53.8

35.6

Performance Avg

46.5

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

0.9

/ 10

1.4

/ 10

2.2

Style: Pressure

3.5

8.1

Style: Volume

7.8

0 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

9Distance11

0Clinch3

0Ground6

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.0

/ 10

3.5

/ 10

2.1

Wrestling Style (/10)

2.5

1.1

Submission Style (/10)

2.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

KO risk

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

Most recent fight

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

19/26 fights

Chin rating based on

7/24 fights

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

3-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · KO · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · Dec · R3

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

W · Sub · R2

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

11%

20%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kowalkiewicz

Lucindo

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

0.9

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

1.4

3.0

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

3.5

2.1

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

2.5

1.1

Submission

Submission attack frequency

2.0

2.2

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

3.5

8.1

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

7.8

Kowalkiewicz

Strike Zones

Lucindo

Kowalkiewicz

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

20 absorbed

Lucindo

Attacking

20 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (44% of attacks) — Lucindo absorbs 44% of strikes there

🎯Lucindo targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kowalkiewicz

RND

Lucindo

0/0R00/0

Kowalkiewicz · Last 5

L · KO · R3

Julia Polastri

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10

L · Dec · R3

Denise Gomes

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11

L · Dec · R3

Iasmin Lucindo

Decision

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

W · Dec · R3

Diana Belbita

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10

W · Dec · R3

Vanessa Demopoulos

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05

Lucindo · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Angela Hill

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08

L · Dec · R3

Amanda Lemos

Decision

UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03

W · Dec · R3

Marina Rodriguez

Decision

UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10

W · Dec · R3

Karolina Kowalkiewicz

Decision

UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05

W · Sub · R2

Polyana Viana

Submission

UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08

News & Media

Karolina Kowalkiewicz · Iasmin Lucindo

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