METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
4 May 2024
Women's Strawweight
VS
38%
Kowalkiewicz
62%
Lucindo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Iasmin LucindowinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Karolina Kowalkiewicz · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Lucindo
→
Actual result
Lucindo wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Lucindo holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Kowalkiewicz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Kowalkiewicz throws more volume but Lucindo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Kowalkiewicz's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
KowalkiewiczLucindo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'3"
Height
5'3"
64"
Reach
+66"
40
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.7
53.8
35.6
Performance Avg
46.5
28
Quality of Victory
30
40
Momentum Score
81
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.0
42%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
12
3
Body
4
2
Leg
4
RangeRange
9Distance11
0Clinch3
0Ground6
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
2.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
96
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/26 fights
Chin rating based on
7/24 fights
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
81
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
11%
20%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
1
8
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Kowalkiewicz
Lucindo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
3.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
2.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.5
1.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
2.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.8
KowalkiewiczLucindo
Strike Zones
Kowalkiewicz
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedLucindo
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Kowalkiewicz targets the head (44% of attacks) — Lucindo absorbs 44% of strikes there
🎯Lucindo targets the head (60% of attacks) — Kowalkiewicz absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Kowalkiewicz
RND
Lucindo
0/0R00/0
Kowalkiewicz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Lucindo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Kowalkiewicz · Last 5
L · KO · R3
Julia PolastriRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Denise GomesRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Diana BelbitaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · Dec · R3
Vanessa DemopoulosRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
Lucindo · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Angela HillRating 4.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6Decision
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
W · Dec · R3
Marina RodriguezRating 5.2Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Karolina KowalkiewiczRating 4.5Decision
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
W · Sub · R2
Polyana VianaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Luque vs. Dos Anjos · 2023-08