UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez
Phoenix, USA
17 Feb 2019
Featherweight
VS
44%
Caceres
56%
Gracie
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gracie
This is a genuine toss-up — Caceres at 44% vs Gracie at 56% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gracie has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Caceres has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Caceres's chin rating of 4 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Caceres
Gracie
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
70"
37
Age
37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Caceres
Gracie
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.7
50.3
42.2
Performance Avg
42.4
34
Quality of Victory
54
76
Momentum Score
43
Caceres
Gracie
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
1
0
Body
0
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance2
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Caceres
Gracie
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
8.0
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Caceres
Gracie
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
4
74
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
30/36 fights
Chin rating based on
4/8 fights
Caceres
Gracie
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
76
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
Caceres
Gracie
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
11
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Caceres
Gracie
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
3.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
8.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
10.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
CaceresGracie
Strike Zones
Caceres
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedGracie
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Caceres targets the head (75% of attacks) — Gracie absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Gracie targets the head (50% of attacks) — Caceres absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Caceres
RND
Gracie
0/0R00/0
Caceres · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Gracie · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Caceres · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Sean WoodsonRating 6.6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Giga ChikadzeRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Daniel PinedaRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R1
Julian ErosaRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · 2022-12
L · Dec · R3
Sodiq YusuffRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
Gracie · Last 4
L · KO · R3
Bryce MitchellRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Charles JourdainRating 6.3Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Cub SwansonRating 6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
W · Sub · R1
Alex CaceresRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02