UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem
Cleveland, USA
10 Sept 2016
Middleweight
VS
65%
Tavares
35%
Magalhaes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Tavares
Tavares holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Magalhaes has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Magalhaes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Striking split: Magalhaes throws more volume but Tavares connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Tavares's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Tavares
Magalhaes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
74"+
Reach
73"
38
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tavares
Magalhaes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.6
18.9
40.1
Performance Avg
52.0
29
Quality of Victory
49
49
Momentum Score
43
Tavares
Magalhaes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
45%
Strike Accuracy
43%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
6
3
Body
2
9
Leg
1
RangeRange
19Distance9
7Clinch0
1Ground0
Tavares
Magalhaes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.1
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Tavares
Magalhaes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
6
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
—
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/34 fights
Chin rating based on
7/13 fights
Tavares
Magalhaes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Tavares
Magalhaes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
13%
75%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
1
14
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tavares
Magalhaes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.1
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.0
8.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.1
TavaresMagalhaes
Strike Zones
Tavares
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedMagalhaes
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tavares targets the head (56% of attacks) — Magalhaes absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Magalhaes targets the head (67% of attacks) — Tavares absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tavares
RND
Magalhaes
0/0R00/0
Tavares · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Magalhaes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Tavares · Last 5
Upcoming
Marc-Andre BarriaultUFC Fight Night · 2026-07
L · Dec · R3
Eryk AndersRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · 2026-03
L · KO · R3
Robert BryczekRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Gerald MeerschaertRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 6.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
Magalhaes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · Sub · R1
Josh SammanRating 1.5Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
W · KO · R1
Trevor SmithRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night 56: Shogun vs Saint Preux · 2014-11
W · KO · R1
Luke ZachrichRating 5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
W · Dec · R3
Nick RingRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · 2013-12