METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Evans
47%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Rashad EvanswinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Dan Henderson · UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Evans
→
Actual result
Evans wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 53% vs Henderson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Henderson has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EvansHenderson
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Evans
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
46+
Age
56
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evans
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
13.8
53.1
Performance Avg
49.5
46
Quality of Victory
49
25
Momentum Score
20
Evans
Henderson
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
5.4
/ 10
4.9
Style: Pressure
4.6
5.8
Style: Volume
5.4
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
8
3
Body
8
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance9
4Clinch9
0Ground0
Evans
Henderson
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Evans
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
18/47 fights
Evans
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Evans
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
44%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Evans
Henderson
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.4
EvansHenderson
Strike Zones
Evans
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedHenderson
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (81% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (44% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 44% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Evans
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0
Evans · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithKO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyDecision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyDecision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderDecision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10
Henderson · Last 5
L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingDecision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardKO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiKO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01