UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
Winnipeg, Canada
15 Jun 2013
Light Heavyweight
VS
53%
Evans
47%
Henderson
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
RE
Rashad Evans
"Suga"
19 – 8
6'0"75" reachOrthodox46 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 15
DH
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32 – 15
Well-Rounded55 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Evans

This is a genuine toss-up — Evans at 53% vs Henderson at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Evans throws more volume but Henderson connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Evans's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Henderson has a chin rating of 2 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Evans
Henderson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
75"+
Reach
74"
46+
Age
55
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Evans
Henderson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.3
13.8
53.1
Performance Avg
49.5
46
Quality of Victory
49
25
Momentum Score
20
Evans
Henderson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
0.7
42%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.4
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
8
3
Body
8
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance9
4Clinch9
0Ground0
Evans
Henderson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
1.3
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Evans
Henderson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
2
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
23/27 fights
Chin rating based on
18/47 fights
Evans
Henderson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
20
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Evans
Henderson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
44%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Evans
Henderson
Striking5.6 / 5.4Volume5.8 / 5.4Grappling1.4 / 1.3Wrestling1.0 / 0.9Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.9 / 4.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.4
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.4
Evans
Strike Zones
Henderson
Evans
Attacking
17HEAD3BODY1LEGS21 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD8BODY2LEGS18 absorbed
Henderson
Attacking
8HEAD8BODY2LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD3BODY1LEGS21 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Evans targets the head (81% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Henderson targets the head (44% of attacks) — Evans absorbs 44% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Evans
RND
Henderson
0/0R00/0

Evans · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W7.3L5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L1.9L5.5L5.5L2.7L2005-112008-092012-012016-042018-06
WinLossTrend

Henderson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.2W4.2W5.5L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W5.5L1998-052009-012013-112015-112016-10
WinLossTrend

Evans · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Anthony SmithRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Sam AlveyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
L · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans · 2016-04
L · Dec · R3
Ryan BaderRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson · 2015-10

Henderson · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

News & Media

Rashad Evans · Dan Henderson
← Back to fights