UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
12 May 2018
Middleweight
VS
47%
Ferreira
53%
Roberson
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 4:45
CF
Cezar Ferreira
"Mutante"
13 – 8
6'1"78" reachSouthpaw41 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
KR
Karl Roberson
"Baby K"
9 – 6
Well-Rounded4-fight slide35 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'1"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Roberson

This is a genuine toss-up — Ferreira at 47% vs Roberson at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Roberson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ferreira's chin rating of 28 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Roberson has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ferreira
Roberson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
78"+
Reach
74"
41
Age
+35
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Ferreira
Roberson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
18.7
49.5
Performance Avg
38.3
43
Quality of Victory
37
58
Momentum Score
25
Ferreira
Roberson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.3
39%
Strike Accuracy
55%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
3
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
0Clinch2
4Ground1
Ferreira
Roberson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ferreira
Roberson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
28
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/21 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Ferreira
Roberson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
58
25
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Ferreira
Roberson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
3
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ferreira
Roberson
Striking1.2 / 0.8Volume6.5 / 4.8Grappling4.3 / 5.2Wrestling3.0 / 3.6Submission3.3 / 5.0Pressure4.1 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Ferreira
Strike Zones
Roberson
Ferreira
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Roberson
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ferreira targets the head (80% of attacks) — Roberson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Roberson targets the head (75% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ferreira
RND
Roberson
0/0R00/0

Ferreira · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W5.0W4.5W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.5L4.5W5.7W6.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W5.5L6.3L2012-062014-062016-072018-052019-07
WinLossTrend

Roberson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0105.0W1.5L4.5W1.9L4.5W6.5W2.3L2.8L3.7L5.3L2017-112019-012020-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Ferreira · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Marvin VettoriRating 6.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Randamie vs. Ladd · 2019-07
L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Sub · R1
Karl RobersonRating 5
Submission
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · Dec · R3
Nate MarquardtRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Browne · 2017-02

Roberson · Last 5

L · KO · R3
Kennedy NzechukwuRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
L · KO · R2
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
L · Sub · R1
Brendan AllenRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Marvin VettoriRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
W · Sub · R3
Roman KopylovRating 6.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11

News & Media

Cezar Ferreira · Karl Roberson
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