UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson
Stockholm, Sweden
24 Jan 2015
Middleweight
VS
37%
Henderson
63%
Mousasi
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:10
DH
Dan Henderson
"Hendo"
32 – 15
5'11"74" reachOrthodox55 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 14
GM
Gegard Mousasi
42 – 6
Striker5-fight win streak40 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 24

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mousasi

Mousasi holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Henderson has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Mousasi has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Henderson's chin rating of 2 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mousasi has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Henderson
Mousasi
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'2"
74"
Reach
+76"
55
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Henderson
Mousasi
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.8
23.5
49.5
Performance Avg
59.2
49
Quality of Victory
49
20
Momentum Score
100
Henderson
Mousasi
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.0
46%
Strike Accuracy
55%
5.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.1
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
3
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Henderson
Mousasi
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.3
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
0.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Henderson
Mousasi
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
2
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/47 fights
Chin rating based on
12/48 fights
Henderson
Mousasi
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
100
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Henderson
Mousasi
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
44%
67%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
1
5
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Henderson
Mousasi
Striking5.4 / 7.1Volume5.4 / 4.2Grappling1.3 / 1.7Wrestling0.9 / 1.2Submission0.0 / 1.1Pressure4.6 / 6.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.1
1.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
0.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
4.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
5.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Henderson
Strike Zones
Mousasi
Henderson
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 absorbed
Mousasi
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY1LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY3LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Henderson targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Mousasi absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Mousasi targets the head (75% of attacks) — Henderson absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Henderson
RND
Mousasi
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Henderson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.2W4.2W5.5L2.1L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L1.5L5.2W4.0L1.5L5.0W1.5L5.2W5.5L1998-052009-012013-112015-112016-10
WinLossTrend

Mousasi · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0104.5W5.5L5.0W2.8L5.0W4.5W2.8L4.5W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.1W2013-042014-092015-092016-102017-04
WinLossTrend

Henderson · Last 5

L · Dec · R5
Michael BispingRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R2
Hector LombardRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 3 · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Henderson · 2015-06
L · KO · R1
Gegard MousasiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01

Mousasi · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Chris WeidmanRating 6.1
KO/TKO
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Uriah HallRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Mousasi vs. Hall 2 · 2016-11
W · KO · R2
Vitor BelfortRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 204: Bisping vs. Henderson · 2016-10
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Thales LeitesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bisping · 2016-02

News & Media

Dan Henderson · Gegard Mousasi
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