METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
Las Vegas, USA
14 Jan 2023
Flyweight
VS
68%
Nascimento
32%
Hernandez
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:16
★ Official Result
Allan NascimentowinsSubmissionR1 · 3:16
def. Carlos Hernandez · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nascimento
→
Actual result
Nascimento wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Nascimento holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Hernandez has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nascimento has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Hernandez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Hernandez has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
NascimentoHernandez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Nascimento
Hernandez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"+
Reach
67"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Nascimento
Hernandez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.4
31.3
55.0
Performance Avg
32.1
38
Quality of Victory
25
100
Momentum Score
35
Nascimento
Hernandez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.6
1.5
43%
Strike Accuracy
47%
1.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
2
Body
1
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Nascimento
Hernandez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.6
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nascimento
Hernandez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
52
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/28 fights
Chin rating based on
7/15 fights
Nascimento
Hernandez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
35
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
Upcoming
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Nascimento
Hernandez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
2
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Nascimento
Hernandez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.3
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.9
NascimentoHernandez
Strike Zones
Nascimento
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedHernandez
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Nascimento targets the head (33% of attacks) — Hernandez absorbs 33% of strikes there
🎯Hernandez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Nascimento absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Nascimento
RND
Hernandez
0/0R00/0
Nascimento · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Hernandez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Nascimento · Last 5
Upcoming
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