UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen
Oakland, USA
7 Aug 2010
Welterweight
VS
56%
Fitch
44%
Alves
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JF
Jon Fitch
30 – 7
6'0"74" reachOrthodox48 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 21
TA
Thiago Alves
"Pitbull"
23 – 15
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fitch

This is a genuine toss-up — Fitch at 56% vs Alves at 44% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Striking split: Alves throws more volume but Fitch connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Alves has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fitch
Alves
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
74"+
Reach
70"
48
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fitch
Alves
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.0
16.5
52.4
Performance Avg
47.3
32
Quality of Victory
42
100
Momentum Score
63
Fitch
Alves
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
57%
Strike Accuracy
45%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
8
2
Body
1
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
4Distance11
1Clinch1
3Ground1
Fitch
Alves
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.5
2.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fitch
Alves
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
74
6
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/37 fights
Chin rating based on
27/38 fights
Fitch
Alves
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
63
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Fitch
Alves
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
53%
1
KO / TKO Wins
7
3
Submission Wins
1
10
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fitch
Alves
Striking2.4 / 5.8Volume7.4 / 4.3Grappling3.4 / 1.5Wrestling2.4 / 1.0Submission2.1 / 0.7Pressure4.5 / 5.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
3.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.5
2.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.0
2.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.4
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
Fitch
Strike Zones
Alves
Fitch
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY4LEGS13 absorbed
Alves
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY4LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fitch targets the head (63% of attacks) — Alves absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Alves targets the head (62% of attacks) — Fitch absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fitch
RND
Alves
0/0R00/0

Fitch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0104.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.2W5.2W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5L2005-102007-062009-072012-102013-02
WinLossTrend

Alves · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0102.8L5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.2W5.2W4.2W5.2W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.0L4.5W5.2W4.4L5.9L4.5W2.8L5.5L5.1W5.5L1.6L2005-102007-112011-052017-042019-12
WinLossTrend

Fitch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar · 2013-02
W · Dec · R3
Erick SilvaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · KO · R1
Johny HendricksRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
Upcoming
BJ Penn
Decision
UFC 127: Penn vs Fitch · 2011-02
W · Dec · R3
Thiago AlvesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 117: Silva vs Sonnen · 2010-08

Alves · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Tim MeansRating 1.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Rozenstruik · 2019-12
L · Dec · R3
Laureano StaropoliRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
W · Dec · R3
Max GriffinRating 5.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Assuncao vs. Moraes 2 · 2019-02
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs. Oleinik · 2018-09
L · KO · R2
Curtis MillenderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02

News & Media

Jon Fitch · Thiago Alves
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