UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs Mousasi
Ledyard, USA
5 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
26%
Lauzon
74%
Chiesa
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Chiesa
Chiesa is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Lauzon has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Lauzon's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Chiesa has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lauzon
Chiesa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'1"
71"
Reach
+75"
42
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lauzon
Chiesa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.7
50.7
51.5
Performance Avg
53.3
49
Quality of Victory
43
59
Momentum Score
50
Lauzon
Chiesa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.7
43%
Strike Accuracy
41%
4.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
4
Body
4
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance7
4Clinch4
1Ground0
Lauzon
Chiesa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
—
4.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lauzon
Chiesa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
36
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
5
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
—
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/44 fights
Chin rating based on
22/27 fights
Lauzon
Chiesa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
59
50
Current form
4-fight 🔥 win streak
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Lauzon
Chiesa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
0
7
Submission Wins
9
3
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lauzon
Chiesa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.4
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
4.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
2.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
LauzonChiesa
Strike Zones
Lauzon
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedChiesa
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Lauzon targets the head (67% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Chiesa targets the head (55% of attacks) — Lauzon absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lauzon
RND
Chiesa
0/0R00/0
Lauzon · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Lauzon · Last 5
W · KO · R1
Jonathan PearceRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10
L · KO · R2
Chris GruetzemacherRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
L · KO · R1
Clay GuidaRating 2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Stevie RayRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
W · Dec · R3
Marcin HeldRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07