John Castaneda vs Muin Gafurov — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

Las Vegas, USA

3 Jun 2023

Bantamweight

61%

Castaneda

39%

Gafurov

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

John Castaneda

"Sexi Mexi"

21 – 8

5'6"71" reachSwitch34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 51

Muin Gafurov

"Tajik"

20 – 7

Well-Rounded30 yrsOrthodox68" reach5'7"

CFR 33

★ Official Result

John CastanedawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Muin Gafurov · UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Castaneda

→

Actual result

Castaneda wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

Castaneda holds a meaningful edge at 61% per the CFR ratings — but Gafurov has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Castaneda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CastanedaGafurov

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Castaneda

Gafurov

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

5'6"

Height

+5'7"

71"+

Reach

68"

Age

+30

Switch

Stance

Orthodox

Castaneda

Gafurov

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

51.0

32.5

43.2

Performance Avg

31.0

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Castaneda

Gafurov

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.5

/ 10

0.8

/ 10

5.0

Style: Pressure

1.2

5.0

Style: Volume

8.8

1 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

0 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

6Distance10

1Clinch1

0Ground0

Castaneda

Gafurov

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

3.2

/ 10

2.4

/ 10

2.2

Wrestling Style (/10)

1.7

2.5

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Castaneda

Gafurov

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Moderate

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R2.0 stoppage

KO round context

—

6 fights ago

Last KO loss

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

10/29 fights

Chin rating based on

5/27 fights

Castaneda

Gafurov

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

2-fight 📉 slide

Current form

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

L · Sub · R3

W · Dec · R3

L · Sub · R1

L · Dec · R3

Castaneda

Gafurov

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castaneda

Gafurov

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

3.5

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

0.8

3.2

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

2.4

2.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

1.7

2.5

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

5.0

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

1.2

5.0

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

8.8

Castaneda

Strike Zones

Gafurov

Castaneda

Attacking

7 landed

Absorbing

11 absorbed

Gafurov

Attacking

11 landed

Absorbing

7 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Castaneda targets the head (71% of attacks) — Gafurov absorbs 71% of strikes there

🎯Gafurov targets the head (73% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 73% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castaneda

RND

Gafurov

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Castaneda · Last 5

Upcoming

Alatengheili

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Decision

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Chris Gutierrez

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Daniel Marcos

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Gafurov · Last 5

L · Sub · R3

Jakub Wiklacz

Submission

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Rinya Nakamura

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Kyung Ho Kang

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Said Nurmagomedov

Submission

UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · 2023-10

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John Castaneda

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

News & Media

John Castaneda · Muin Gafurov

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