★ Championship Bout · Lightweight
UFC 84: Ill Will
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2008
Lightweight
VS
58%
Penn
42%
Sherk
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Penn
This is a genuine toss-up — Penn at 58% vs Sherk at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Penn has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.
Penn has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Penn's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sherk has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Penn
Sherk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
67"
47+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Penn
Sherk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
22.2
16.2
56.9
Performance Avg
45.8
63
Quality of Victory
32
100
Momentum Score
65
Penn
Sherk
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.8
51%
Strike Accuracy
32%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
6 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
38
Head
9
2
Body
0
1
Leg
9
RangeRange
38Distance18
0Clinch0
3Ground0
Penn
Sherk
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.8
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.0
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
4
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Penn
Sherk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/30 fights
Chin rating based on
12/40 fights
Penn
Sherk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
7-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R5
Penn
Sherk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
13%
6
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Penn
Sherk
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.8
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
7.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.9
1.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.3
PennSherk
Strike Zones
Penn
Attacking
41 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedSherk
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
41 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Penn targets the head (93% of attacks) — Sherk absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Sherk targets the head (50% of attacks) — Penn absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Penn
RND
Sherk
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Penn · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Sherk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Penn · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 6Decision
UFC 237: Namajunas vs. Andrade · 2019-05
L · Sub · R1
Ryan HallRating 1.5Submission
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Dennis SiverRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
L · KO · R2
Yair RodriguezRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
L · KO · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 2.8KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07
Sherk · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 4.5Decision
UFC 119: Mir vs Cro Cop · 2010-09
L · Dec · R3
Frankie EdgarRating 5.5Decision
UFC 98: Evans vs Machida · 2009-05
W · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 4.5Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · KO · R3
BJ PennRating 2.8KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05
W · Dec · R5
Hermes FrancaRating 4.5Decision
UFC 73: Stacked · 2007-07