UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
Stockholm, Sweden
4 Oct 2014
Featherweight
VS
18%
Corassani
82%
Holloway
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holloway
Holloway is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holloway has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 20 points.
Holloway has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Corassani's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holloway has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Corassani
Holloway
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'11"
68"
Reach
+69"
43
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Corassani
Holloway
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.6
56.2
36.0
Performance Avg
56.8
27
Quality of Victory
47
55
Momentum Score
63
Corassani
Holloway
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
2.2
45%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
10 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
25
1
Body
4
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
10Distance20
1Clinch4
0Ground7
Corassani
Holloway
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.6
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.1
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.9
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Corassani
Holloway
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
52
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/18 fights
Chin rating based on
33/36 fights
Corassani
Holloway
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
63
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Corassani
Holloway
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
52%
0
KO / TKO Wins
10
0
Submission Wins
2
3
Decision Wins
11
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Corassani
Holloway
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
1.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.9
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
CorassaniHolloway
Strike Zones
Corassani
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedHolloway
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Corassani targets the head (73% of attacks) — Holloway absorbs 73% of strikes there
🎯Holloway targets the head (81% of attacks) — Corassani absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Corassani
RND
Holloway
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Corassani · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Holloway · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.6WinLossTrend
Corassani · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Sam SiciliaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johnson · 2015-01
L · KO · R1
Max HollowayRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story · 2014-10
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Kennedy · 2014-04
W · R1
Maximo BlancoRating 4The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Robert PeraltaRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Mousasi vs Latifi · 2013-04
Holloway · Last 5
Upcoming
Conor McGregorUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · Dec · R5
Charles OliveiraRating 6.9Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · Dec · R5
Dustin PoirierRating 5.8Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R3
Ilia TopuriaRating 5.1KO/TKO
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · KO · R5
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04