UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler
Houston, USA
15 May 2021
Middleweight
VS
27%
Souza
73%
Muniz
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Muniz
Muniz is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 34 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Souza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Souza has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Souza's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Muniz has a chin rating of 22 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Souza
Muniz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
6'1"
72"
Reach
+78"
46
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Souza
Muniz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.5
53.7
54.6
Performance Avg
47.7
53
Quality of Victory
40
56
Momentum Score
92
Souza
Muniz
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.1
56%
Strike Accuracy
46%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.2
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
3
4
Body
2
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
7Distance6
0Clinch1
4Ground0
Souza
Muniz
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.2
2.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Souza
Muniz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
22
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/36 fights
Chin rating based on
10/32 fights
Souza
Muniz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
92
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Souza
Muniz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
89%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
4
Submission Wins
3
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Souza
Muniz
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
4.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
7.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
2.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
SouzaMuniz
Strike Zones
Souza
Attacking
11 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedMuniz
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
11 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Souza targets the head (45% of attacks) — Muniz absorbs 45% of strikes there
🎯Muniz targets the head (43% of attacks) — Souza absorbs 43% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Souza
RND
Muniz
0/0R00/0
Souza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Muniz · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Souza · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4Submission
UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · 2021-05
L · KO · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC 256: Figueiredo vs. Moreno · 2020-12
L · Dec · R5
Jan BlachowiczRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
L · Dec · R5
Jack HermanssonRating 6.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Jacare vs. Hermansson · 2019-04
W · KO · R3
Chris WeidmanRating 6.3KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
Muniz · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Edmen ShahbazyanRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Ikram AliskerovRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · Dec · R3
JunYong ParkRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · Sub · R3
Brendan AllenRating 5.3Submission
UFC Fight Night: Muniz vs. Allen · 2023-02