UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski
Perth, Australia
11 Feb 2023
Light Heavyweight
VS
52%
Pedro
48%
Bukauskas
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pedro
This is a genuine toss-up — Pedro at 52% vs Bukauskas at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Pedro has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Pedro has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Pedro's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Bukauskas has a chin rating of 10 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Pedro
Bukauskas
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
76"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Pedro
Bukauskas
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.6
51.5
56.6
Performance Avg
49.0
58
Quality of Victory
41
65
Momentum Score
81
Pedro
Bukauskas
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.4
60%
Strike Accuracy
43%
7.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
16
10
Body
5
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance14
5Clinch9
0Ground0
Pedro
Bukauskas
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
2.2
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
3.3
Submission Style (/10)
1.3
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Pedro
Bukauskas
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
10
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/15 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Pedro
Bukauskas
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
81
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Pedro
Bukauskas
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
3
2
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Pedro
Bukauskas
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.0
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.2
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.3
8.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.3
1.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.2
PedroBukauskas
Strike Zones
Pedro
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedBukauskas
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Pedro targets the body (53% of attacks) — Bukauskas absorbs 53% of strikes there
🎯Bukauskas targets the head (70% of attacks) — Pedro absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Pedro
RND
Bukauskas
0/0R00/0
Pedro · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Bukauskas · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
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L · Dec · R3
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