UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
Toronto, Canada
21 Sept 2013
Lightweight
VS
8%
Healy
92%
Nurmagomedov
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
PH
Pat Healy
"Bam Bam"
34 – 23
6'0"72" reachOrthodox42 yrs5-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 2
KN
Khabib Nurmagomedov
"The Eagle"
29 – 0
Well-Rounded13-fight win streak37 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'10"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurmagomedov

Nurmagomedov is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nurmagomedov has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 47 points.

Striking split: Healy throws more volume but Nurmagomedov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Healy
Nurmagomedov
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
72"+
Reach
70"
42
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
2.2
25.9
0.0
Performance Avg
68.2
0
Quality of Victory
47
0
Momentum Score
100
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
43%
Strike Accuracy
50%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
8
2
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground5
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
4.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.9
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.9
0
Submission wins
5
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
80
100
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/57 fights
Chin rating based on
13/29 fights
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
5-fight 📉 slide
Current form
13-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
W · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R4
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Healy
Nurmagomedov
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
54%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
5
0
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Healy
Nurmagomedov
Striking0.0 / 3.5Volume0.0 / 5.7Grappling0.0 / 4.2Wrestling0.0 / 2.9Submission0.0 / 3.9Pressure0.0 / 6.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.5
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.8
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.7
Healy
Strike Zones
Nurmagomedov
Healy
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 absorbed
Nurmagomedov
Attacking
8HEAD2BODY0LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Healy targets the head (67% of attacks) — Nurmagomedov absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Nurmagomedov targets the head (80% of attacks) — Healy absorbs 80% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Healy
RND
Nurmagomedov
0/0R00/0

Healy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.5L6.2L5.5L5.5L2006-082013-092013-122014-042014-07
WinLossTrend

Nurmagomedov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W4.7W5.2W5.6W5.0W4.5W7.3W6.6W6.7W2012-012013-092017-122020-10
WinLossTrend

Healy · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Gleison TibauRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · Dec · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne · 2014-04
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavidez 2 · 2013-12
L · Dec · R3
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson · 2013-09
Upcoming
Jim Miller
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen · 2013-04

Nurmagomedov · Last 5

W · Sub · R2
Justin GaethjeRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · 2020-10
W · Sub · R3
Dustin PoirierRating 6.6
Submission
UFC 242: Khabib vs. Poirier · 2019-09
W · Sub · R4
Conor McGregorRating 7.3
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R5
Al IaquintaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04
W · Dec · R3
Edson BarbozaRating 5
Decision
UFC 219: Cyborg vs. Holm · 2017-12

News & Media

Pat Healy · Khabib Nurmagomedov
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