METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Welterweight
VS
76%
Covington
24%
Woodley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 1:19
★ Official Result
Colby CovingtonwinsKO/TKOR5 · 1:19
def. Tyron Woodley · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Covington
→
Actual result
Covington wins
KO/TKO · R5
Pre-fight analysis
Covington is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.
Woodley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Woodley has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CovingtonWoodley
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Covington
Woodley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Woodley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
19.4
53.2
Performance Avg
58.9
42
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
40
Covington
Woodley
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.8
0.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Covington
Woodley
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Woodley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
16/26 fights
Covington
Woodley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Covington
Woodley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Covington
Woodley
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
CovingtonWoodley
Strike Zones
Covington
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedWoodley
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the body (50% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Woodley targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Covington
RND
Woodley
0/0R00/0
Covington · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Woodley · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Covington · Last 5
L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
Woodley · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09