UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley
Las Vegas, USA
19 Sept 2020
Welterweight
VS
76%
Covington
24%
Woodley
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 5 · 1:19
Colby
Colby Covington
"Chaos"
17 – 5
5'11"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 61
TW
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
19 – 7
Striker4-fight slide44 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Covington

Covington is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Woodley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 16 points.

Woodley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Covington's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Woodley has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Covington
Woodley
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
72"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Covington
Woodley
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
61.2
19.4
53.2
Performance Avg
58.9
42
Quality of Victory
58
100
Momentum Score
40
Covington
Woodley
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.8
0.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
49%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.8
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
2
Body
0
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
4Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Covington
Woodley
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
1.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
1.1
2
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Covington
Woodley
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R5.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R5.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
16/26 fights
Covington
Woodley
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R5
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R5
L · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R2
Covington
Woodley
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
42%
67%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
2
Submission Wins
1
7
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Covington
Woodley
Striking3.9 / 6.8Volume6.1 / 3.9Grappling2.7 / 1.7Wrestling1.9 / 1.2Submission1.7 / 1.1Pressure5.0 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.8
2.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.1
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
6.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
Covington
Strike Zones
Woodley
Covington
Attacking
0HEAD2BODY2LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 absorbed
Woodley
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY1LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD2BODY2LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Covington targets the body (50% of attacks) — Woodley absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Woodley targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Covington absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Covington
RND
Woodley
0/0R00/0

Covington · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5W4.5W1.7L5.5W6.1W4.9W4.5W4.5W4.7W4.8W5.1L5.5W6.6L4.5W6.6L5.9L2014-082016-082019-082023-122024-12
WinLossTrend

Woodley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.5L5.0W5.2W5.5L5.0W4.8W5.3W5.1W4.5W5.1W6.6L5.7L5.3L3.0L2013-022014-062017-032020-052021-03
WinLossTrend

Covington · Last 5

L · R3
Joaquin BuckleyRating 5.9
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
W · Dec · R5
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
W · KO · R5
Tyron WoodleyRating 5.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

Woodley · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Vicente LuqueRating 3
Submission
UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou · 2021-03
L · KO · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 5.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R5
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Woodley vs. Burns · 2020-05
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Sub · R2
Darren TillRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

News & Media

Colby Covington · Tyron Woodley
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