UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Bantamweight
VS
63%
Wineland
37%
Mizugaki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:04
EW
Eddie Wineland
24 – 16
5'7"69" reachOrthodox41 yrs3-fight slideStriker
CFR 28
TM
Takeya Mizugaki
21 – 11
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'7"
CFR 16

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Wineland

Wineland holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Mizugaki has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Wineland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.

Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Mizugaki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Wineland's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mizugaki has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Wineland
Mizugaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
41+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wineland
Mizugaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
16.4
45.0
Performance Avg
40.1
50
Quality of Victory
29
78
Momentum Score
98
Wineland
Mizugaki
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.4
32%
Strike Accuracy
38%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
1
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Wineland
Mizugaki
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.4
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wineland
Mizugaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Wineland
Mizugaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
98
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Wineland
Mizugaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
13%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
7

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Wineland
Mizugaki
Striking9.1 / 2.4Volume2.1 / 8.1Grappling0.4 / 2.1Wrestling0.3 / 1.5Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 2.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
Wineland
Strike Zones
Mizugaki
Wineland
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD0BODY5LEGS13 absorbed
Mizugaki
Attacking
8HEAD0BODY5LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Wineland targets the head (89% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (62% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Wineland
RND
Mizugaki
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0

Wineland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W2.1L5.2W1.5L5.5L5.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.2W3.0L2.3L1.5L2011-032013-092016-072019-062022-06
WinLossTrend

Mizugaki · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.2
0104.5W5.5L5.2W5.5L4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.0L4.5W2.6L1.5L2011-032012-112014-052016-082016-12
WinLossTrend

Wineland · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3
KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07

Mizugaki · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09

News & Media

Eddie Wineland · Takeya Mizugaki
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