METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Sacramento, USA
17 Dec 2016
Bantamweight
VS
63%
Wineland
37%
Mizugaki
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:04
★ Official Result
Eddie WinelandwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:04
def. Takeya Mizugaki · UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Wineland
→
Actual result
Wineland wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Wineland holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Mizugaki has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 12 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Wineland has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 21 points.
Striking split: Wineland throws more volume but Mizugaki connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Wineland's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mizugaki has a chin rating of 18 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
WinelandMizugaki
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Wineland
Mizugaki
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
69"
Reach
69"
42
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Wineland
Mizugaki
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
16.4
45.0
Performance Avg
40.1
50
Quality of Victory
29
78
Momentum Score
98
Wineland
Mizugaki
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.8
1.4
32%
Strike Accuracy
38%
9.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
5 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
8
1
Body
0
0
Leg
5
RangeRange
7Distance13
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Wineland
Mizugaki
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.4
/ 10
2.1
/ 10
0.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.5
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Wineland
Mizugaki
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
18
3 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
5
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.2 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/40 fights
Chin rating based on
14/32 fights
Wineland
Mizugaki
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
98
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R1
Wineland
Mizugaki
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
13%
5
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
7
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Wineland
Mizugaki
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.1
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.6
2.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.1
WinelandMizugaki
Strike Zones
Wineland
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedMizugaki
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Wineland targets the head (89% of attacks) — Mizugaki absorbs 89% of strikes there
🎯Mizugaki targets the head (62% of attacks) — Wineland absorbs 62% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Wineland
RND
Mizugaki
0/0R00/0
0/0R20/0
Wineland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Mizugaki · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.2WinLossTrend
Wineland · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Cody StamannRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Emmett · 2022-06
L · KO · R1
John CastanedaRating 2.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · 2021-02
L · KO · R1
Sean O'MalleyRating 3KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · KO · R2
Grigory PopovRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 238: Cejudo vs. Moraes · 2019-06
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
Mizugaki · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Eddie WinelandRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · Dec · R3
George RoopRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nelson · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Aljamain SterlingRating 5Submission
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold · 2015-04
L · KO · R1
Dominick CruzRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso · 2014-09