UFC 110: Nogueira vs Velasquez
Sydney, Australia
20 Feb 2010
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Velasquez
43%
Nogueira
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:20
AR
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Velasquez
This is a genuine toss-up — Velasquez at 57% vs Nogueira at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Velasquez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Velasquez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Velasquez's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Nogueira has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Velasquez
Nogueira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
77"
Reach
77"
43+
Age
49
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Velasquez
Nogueira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.8
19.4
69.4
Performance Avg
49.3
62
Quality of Victory
52
100
Momentum Score
91
Velasquez
Nogueira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.6
1.2
59%
Strike Accuracy
43%
9.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.9
10 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
16
Head
3
1
Body
0
6
Leg
0
RangeRange
16Distance3
2Clinch0
5Ground0
Velasquez
Nogueira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.7
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.2
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Velasquez
Nogueira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
8
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
15/17 fights
Chin rating based on
11/44 fights
Velasquez
Nogueira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
91
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · KO · R5
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R2
L · Sub · R1
Velasquez
Nogueira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
83%
60%
10
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
2
2
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Velasquez
Nogueira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.9
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.2
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.9
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.0
8.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.6
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
VelasquezNogueira
Strike Zones
Velasquez
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedNogueira
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Velasquez targets the head (70% of attacks) — Nogueira absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Nogueira targets the head (100% of attacks) — Velasquez absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Velasquez
RND
Nogueira
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Velasquez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Nogueira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Velasquez · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Francis NgannouRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Velasquez · 2019-02
W · KO · R1
Travis BrowneRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07
L · Sub · R3
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.8Submission
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum · 2015-06
W · KO · R5
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santos 3 · 2013-10
W · KO · R1
Antonio SilvaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
Nogueira · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Stefan StruveRating 5.5Decision
UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia · 2015-08
L · KO · R1
Roy NelsonRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs Nelson · 2014-04
L · Sub · R2
Fabricio WerdumRating 2.1Submission
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. Werdum · 2013-06
W · Sub · R2
Dave HermanRating 5.2Submission
UFC 153: Silva vs Bonnar · 2012-10
L · Sub · R1
Frank MirRating 1.5Submission
UFC 140: Jones vs Machida · 2011-12