UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev
Las Vegas, USA
8 Mar 2025
Welterweight
VS
41%
Morono
59%
Leal
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:16
Alex
Alex Morono
"The Great White"
24 – 13
5'11"72" reachOrthodox35 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 35
Carlos
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
23 – 7
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Leal

This is a genuine toss-up — Morono at 41% vs Leal at 59% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Leal has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Morono's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Morono
Leal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
35
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Morono
Leal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
50.9
43.3
Performance Avg
45.5
35
Quality of Victory
43
20
Momentum Score
60
Morono
Leal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
5.0
41%
Strike Accuracy
50%
2.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
49
4
Body
28
4
Leg
2
RangeRange
35Distance54
5Clinch25
0Ground0
Morono
Leal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Morono
Leal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
76
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/37 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Morono
Leal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
60
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Morono
Leal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
31%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
0
9
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Morono
Leal
Striking2.7 / 6.0Volume6.7 / 5.0Grappling2.9 / 1.2Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission1.5 / 0.0Pressure3.9 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
6.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Morono
Strike Zones
Leal
Morono
Attacking
32HEAD4BODY4LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
49HEAD28BODY2LEGS79 absorbed
Leal
Attacking
49HEAD28BODY2LEGS79 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD4BODY4LEGS40 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Morono targets the head (80% of attacks) — Leal absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Leal targets the head (62% of attacks) — Morono absorbs 62% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Morono
RND
Leal
0/0R00/0

Morono · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W5.5L5.0W5.5L4.9W5.0W5.1W2.9L4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5L5.3W6.7L4.7W6.2L6.4L2.3L7.8L2016-012019-032021-092024-042026-02
WinLossTrend

Leal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0107.1L5.0W2.5L5.6W2024-102025-032025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Morono · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Daniil DonchenkoRating 7.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Carlos LealRating 2.3
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
L · Dec · R3
Niko PriceRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · 2024-04

Leal · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Alex Morono · Carlos Leal
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