The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale
Las Vegas, USA
15 Dec 2012
Heavyweight
VS
92%
Barry
8%
Rosario
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 0:26
PB
Pat Barry
"HD"
8 – 7
5'11"74" reachOrthodox46 yrs2-fight slideStriker
CFR 19
Sd
Shane del Rosario
11 – 2
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw6'4"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Barry

Barry is a strong favourite at 92% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Barry has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 51 points.

Barry has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Barry's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Rosario has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Barry
Rosario
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'4"
74"
Reach
46
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Barry
Rosario
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.8
1.6
47.3
Performance Avg
0.0
51
Quality of Victory
0
85
Momentum Score
0
Barry
Rosario
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
0.2
57%
Strike Accuracy
38%
8.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
6Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Barry
Rosario
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Barry
Rosario
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
4
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/15 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Barry
Rosario
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
85
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Barry
Rosario
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Barry
Rosario
Striking8.8 / 0.0Volume2.4 / 0.0Grappling0.5 / 0.0Wrestling0.3 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
2.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Barry
Strike Zones
Rosario
Barry
Attacking
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Rosario
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD0BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Barry targets the head (100% of attacks) — Rosario absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Barry
RND
Rosario
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Barry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0105.0W1.5L5.2W4.0L4.5W1.5L2.8L5.0W1.5L5.2W1.5L1.5L2008-122010-062011-102012-122013-12
WinLossTrend

Rosario · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0103.8L2.8L2012-052012-12
WinLossTrend

Barry · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Soa PaleleiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Bigfoot · 2013-12
L · KO · R1
Shawn JordanRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson · 2013-06
W · KO · R2
Shane del RosarioRating 5.2
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · KO · R1
Lavar JohnsonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05
W · KO · R1
Christian MorecraftRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FX: Guillard vs Miller · 2012-01

Rosario · Last 2

L · KO · R2
Pat BarryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · KO · R2
Stipe MiocicRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05

News & Media

Pat Barry · Shane del Rosario
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