UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Spivac
Las Vegas, USA
4 Feb 2023
Heavyweight
VS
57%
Lewis
43%
Spivac
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:05
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Lewis
This is a genuine toss-up — Lewis at 57% vs Spivac at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 14 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Spivac throws more volume but Lewis connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Lewis's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Spivac has a chin rating of 8 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Lewis
Spivac
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"
Height
6'3"
79"+
Reach
78"
41
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Lewis
Spivac
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.2
45.1
57.5
Performance Avg
52.0
53
Quality of Victory
47
84
Momentum Score
33
Lewis
Spivac
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.8
56%
Strike Accuracy
50%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
16 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
12
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground12
Lewis
Spivac
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lewis
Spivac
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
8
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
8
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/42 fights
Chin rating based on
15/24 fights
Lewis
Spivac
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
84
33
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Lewis
Spivac
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
80%
67%
16
KO / TKO Wins
3
0
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Lewis
Spivac
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
0.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
7.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
2.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
LewisSpivac
Strike Zones
Lewis
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedSpivac
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spivac targets the head (100% of attacks) — Lewis absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Lewis
RND
Spivac
0/0R00/0
Lewis · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Spivac · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Lewis · Last 5
Upcoming
Josh HokitUFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
L · KO · R2
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 4.3KO/TKO
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tallison TeixeiraRating 6.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · KO · R3
Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
L · Dec · R5
Jailton AlmeidaRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
Spivac · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Ante DelijaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 7Decision
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
L · KO · R1
Jailton AlmeidaRating 3.3KO/TKO
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Sub · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · KO · R2
Ciryl GaneRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09