UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal
Seoul, South Korea
28 Nov 2015
Welterweight
VS
26%
Akiyama
74%
Mina
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Mina
Mina is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mina has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 22 points.
Striking split: Mina throws more volume but Akiyama connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Akiyama's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Akiyama
Mina
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+6'0"
75"
Reach
+77"
50
Age
+44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Akiyama
Mina
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.3
24.2
26.4
Performance Avg
58.0
25
Quality of Victory
47
10
Momentum Score
100
Akiyama
Mina
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.5
40%
Strike Accuracy
39%
0.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
40
Head
13
1
Body
0
3
Leg
3
RangeRange
32Distance14
1Clinch2
11Ground0
Akiyama
Mina
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Akiyama
Mina
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
98
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/20 fights
Chin rating based on
4/14 fights
Akiyama
Mina
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
10
100
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Akiyama
Mina
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
67%
0
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Akiyama
Mina
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
AkiyamaMina
Strike Zones
Akiyama
Attacking
44 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedMina
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
44 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Akiyama targets the head (91% of attacks) — Mina absorbs 91% of strikes there
🎯Mina targets the head (81% of attacks) — Akiyama absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Akiyama
RND
Mina
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Akiyama · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Mina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Akiyama · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alberto MinaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Jake ShieldsRating 5.5Decision
UFC 144: Edgar vs Henderson · 2012-02
L · KO · R1
Vitor BelfortRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 133: Evans vs Ortiz 2 · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Michael BispingRating 5.5Decision
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10
Mina · Last 4
L · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 5.5Decision
UFC 224: Nunes vs. Pennington · 2018-05
W · KO · R2
Mike PyleRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Yoshihiro AkiyamaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
W · KO · R1
Shinsho AnzaiRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le · 2014-08