UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Las Vegas, USA
7 Jul 2016
Welterweight
VS
80%
Luque
20%
Mendoza
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 3:52
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Luque
Luque is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 49 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Mendoza has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 10 points.
Luque has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mendoza has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Luque
Mendoza
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
75"+
Reach
74"
34+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Mendoza
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
16.4
57.2
Performance Avg
46.0
50
Quality of Victory
60
100
Momentum Score
22
Luque
Mendoza
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
1.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
33%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
7
Head
2
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance1
1Clinch2
5Ground0
Luque
Mendoza
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.6
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
7
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Mendoza
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
4/15 fights
Luque
Mendoza
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
22
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Luque
Mendoza
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
100%
7
KO / TKO Wins
1
7
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Mendoza
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
LuqueMendoza
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedMendoza
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (78% of attacks) — Mendoza absorbs 78% of strikes there
🎯Mendoza targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Mendoza
0/0R00/0
Luque · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Mendoza · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Luque · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03
Mendoza · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Devin PowellRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
L · Sub · R1
Jordan RinaldiRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Pettis vs. Moreno · 2017-08
L · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 4.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · KO · R1
Vernon Ramos HoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11