UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Bantamweight
VS
29%
Alcantara
71%
Kelleher
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:48
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Kelleher
Kelleher is a strong favourite at 71% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 24 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Kelleher throws more volume but Alcantara connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Alcantara's chin rating of 56 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Kelleher has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Alcantara
Kelleher
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'6"
71"+
Reach
66"
45
Age
+39
Southpaw
Stance
Switch
Alcantara
Kelleher
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.9
40.8
48.0
Performance Avg
44.5
41
Quality of Victory
43
49
Momentum Score
61
Alcantara
Kelleher
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.7
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.4
3 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
1
4
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
10Distance4
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Alcantara
Kelleher
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.9
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Alcantara
Kelleher
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
56
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
18/45 fights
Chin rating based on
17/40 fights
Alcantara
Kelleher
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
61
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Alcantara
Kelleher
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
63%
3
KO / TKO Wins
2
2
Submission Wins
3
5
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Alcantara
Kelleher
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.4
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.9
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.7
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.8
5.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.9
AlcantaraKelleher
Strike Zones
Alcantara
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedKelleher
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Alcantara targets the head (67% of attacks) — Kelleher absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Kelleher targets the body (50% of attacks) — Alcantara absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Alcantara
RND
Kelleher
0/0R00/0
Alcantara · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Kelleher · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.1WinLossTrend
Alcantara · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · KO · R1
Joe SotoRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · 2018-02
L · Dec · R3
Alejandro PerezRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Ortega · 2017-12
L · Sub · R1
Brian KelleherRating 1.8Submission
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
W · Sub · R2
Luke SandersRating 5.2Submission
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
Kelleher · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Cody GibsonRating 1.7Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · 2024-07
L · KO · R1
Cody GarbrandtRating 2.6KO/TKO
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Sub · R1
Mario BautistaRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · 2022-06
L · Sub · R1
Umar NurmagomedovRating 2.8Submission
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
W · Dec · R3
Kevin CroomRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01