UFC 69: Shootout
Houston, USA
7 Apr 2007
Middleweight
VS
42%
Okami
58%
Swick
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Swick
This is a genuine toss-up — Okami at 42% vs Swick at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Swick has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
Striking split: Swick throws more volume but Okami connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Okami's chin rating of 16 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Swick has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Okami
Swick
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
44+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Okami
Swick
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.7
22.6
46.5
Performance Avg
55.0
33
Quality of Victory
47
78
Momentum Score
100
Okami
Swick
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
0.9
40%
Strike Accuracy
36%
4.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
0
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance2
1Clinch1
9Ground1
Okami
Swick
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Okami
Swick
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
16
60
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Okami
Swick
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
Okami
Swick
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
29%
70%
4
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
10
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Okami
Swick
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.7
OkamiSwick
Strike Zones
Okami
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedSwick
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Okami targets the head (100% of attacks) — Swick absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Swick targets the head (75% of attacks) — Okami absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Okami
RND
Swick
0/0R00/0
Okami · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Swick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Okami · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Aleksei KunchenkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12
W · Dec · R3
Dhiego LimaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
L · Sub · R1
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 2.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Saint Preux vs. Okami · 2017-09
L · KO · R1
Jacare SouzaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Bader · 2013-09
W · Dec · R3
Hector LombardRating 4.5Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann · 2013-03
Swick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Matt BrownRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz · 2012-12
W · KO · R2
DaMarques JohnsonRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Shogun vs Vera · 2012-08
L · Sub · R2
Paulo ThiagoRating 2.8Submission
UFC 109: Relentless · 2010-02
L · Dec · R3
Dan HardyRating 5.5Decision
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11