UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill
Las Vegas, USA
20 May 2023
Women's Strawweight
VS
62%
Dern
38%
Hill
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Mackenzie
Mackenzie Dern
16 – 5
5'4"63" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 60
Angela
Angela Hill
"Overkill"
18 – 16
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox64" reach5'3"
CFR 36

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Dern

Dern holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Hill has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Hill has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Hill has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Dern
Hill
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"+
Height
5'3"
63"
Reach
+64"
33+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Dern
Hill
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.6
36.2
51.1
Performance Avg
36.7
39
Quality of Victory
31
94
Momentum Score
40
Dern
Hill
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.9
44%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
27
Head
1
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance3
0Clinch0
19Ground0
Dern
Hill
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.5
3.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Dern
Hill
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
48
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/21 fights
Chin rating based on
30/34 fights
Dern
Hill
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
94
40
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R5
W · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Dern
Hill
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
15%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
5
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
11

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Dern
Hill
Striking1.4 / 1.7Volume5.7 / 7.0Grappling5.0 / 2.5Wrestling3.5 / 1.7Submission4.5 / 0.8Pressure5.2 / 2.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.7
5.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.5
3.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
4.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.8
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.4
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
7.0
Dern
Strike Zones
Hill
Dern
Attacking
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Hill
Attacking
1HEAD2BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
27HEAD0BODY0LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Dern targets the head (100% of attacks) — Hill absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Hill targets the body (67% of attacks) — Dern absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Dern
RND
Hill
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Dern · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W5.0W5.6L5.0W5.0W5.2W5.0W6.2L5.2W6.5L4.6W3.5L6.6L5.0W5.4W5.2W2018-032020-092022-042024-022025-10
WinLossTrend

Hill · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0104.5W6.2L2.9L6.3L4.5W5.5L5.1W5.5L1.5L4.5W6.5L5.5W5.2W5.4W5.5L5.5L4.5W6.2L6.6L6.2L5.0W4.5W6.7L5.8W5.3W6.2L4.9W6.4L7.1L2014-122019-032021-032024-052025-11
WinLossTrend

Dern · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Virna JandirobaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Sub · R3
Amanda RibasRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Ribas 2 · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Loopy GodinezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Amanda LemosRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Jessica AndradeRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11

Hill · Last 5

Upcoming
Xiong Jingnan
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Fatima KlineRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Dec · R3
Iasmin LucindoRating 6.4
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · 2025-08
W · Dec · R3
Ketlen SouzaRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Tabatha RicciRating 6.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08

News & Media

Mackenzie Dern · Angela Hill
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