UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira
Las Vegas, USA
21 May 2022
Middleweight
VS
95%
Holmes
5%
Amedovski
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:04
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holmes
Holmes is a strong favourite at 95% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Holmes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 54 points.
Holmes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holmes's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Amedovski has a chin rating of 42 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holmes
Amedovski
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
5'10"
80"+
Reach
74"
30+
Age
38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holmes
Amedovski
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
1.8
42.4
Performance Avg
0.0
54
Quality of Victory
0
29
Momentum Score
0
Holmes
Amedovski
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.6
56%
Strike Accuracy
28%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
1
2
Body
0
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance1
1Clinch0
6Ground0
Holmes
Amedovski
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holmes
Amedovski
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
42
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/12 fights
Chin rating based on
4/12 fights
Holmes
Amedovski
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
29
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Holmes
Amedovski
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holmes
Amedovski
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
HolmesAmedovski
Strike Zones
Holmes
Attacking
16 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedAmedovski
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
16 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holmes targets the head (69% of attacks) — Amedovski absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Amedovski targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holmes absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holmes
RND
Amedovski
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Holmes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Amedovski · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.0WinLossTrend
Holmes · Last 4
L · KO · R2
Claudio RibeiroRating 3.1KO/TKO
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
L · Sub · R2
JunYong ParkRating 3.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · 2022-10
W · Sub · R1
Alen AmedovskiRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · Dec · R3
Jamie PickettRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Chikadze · 2022-01
Amedovski · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Joe PyferRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · 2022-09
L · Sub · R1
Joseph HolmesRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · 2022-05
L · KO · R1
John PhillipsRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Cannonier · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · 2019-04