METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
52%
Chiesa
48%
Holland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
★ Official Result
Kevin HollandwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:39
def. Michael Chiesa · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Holland wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 52% vs Holland at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChiesaHolland
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chiesa
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
38
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
47.0
53.3
Performance Avg
49.3
43
Quality of Victory
44
50
Momentum Score
51
Chiesa
Holland
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
/ 10
4.3
/ 10
6.3
Style: Pressure
6.5
4.6
Style: Volume
3.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch4
0Ground1
Chiesa
Holland
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
9
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
6
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Chiesa
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
69%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
6
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
ChiesaHolland
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedHolland
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the head (78% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
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