UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
52%
Chiesa
48%
Holland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
KH
Kevin Holland
"Trailblazer"
29 – 15
Well-Rounded33 yrsOrthodox81" reach6'3"
CFR 47

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 52% vs Holland at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Holland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chiesa
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
38
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
47.0
53.3
Performance Avg
49.3
43
Quality of Victory
44
50
Momentum Score
51
Chiesa
Holland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch4
0Ground1
Chiesa
Holland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
5.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
9
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
6
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Chiesa
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
69%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
6
6
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Holland
Striking1.4 / 4.3Volume4.6 / 3.6Grappling5.8 / 3.8Wrestling4.0 / 2.6Submission6.0 / 3.8Pressure6.3 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Holland
Chiesa
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Holland
Attacking
7HEAD2BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the head (78% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 78% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Holland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.5W5.6W4.5W4.1L6.4W6.7W4.5W5.0W5.0W5.8L6.3L5.2W5.3W3.4L3.9L6.0W5.8W7.0L6.3L6.0W2.9L2.5L5.6W6.7W6.4L7.3L5.4W2018-082020-092022-092024-102026-04
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Holland · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Kevin Holland
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