METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Salt Lake City, USA
29 Jul 2023
Welterweight
VS
52%
Chiesa
48%
Holland
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:39
★ Official Result
Kevin HollandwinsSubmissionR1 · 2:39
def. Michael Chiesa · UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Chiesa
→
Actual result
Holland wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 52% vs Holland at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Holland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Holland has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
ChiesaHolland
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Chiesa
Holland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+81"
38
Age
+33
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Holland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
47.0
53.3
Performance Avg
49.3
43
Quality of Victory
44
50
Momentum Score
51
Chiesa
Holland
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
1.2
41%
Strike Accuracy
52%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
0
Body
2
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance4
1Clinch4
0Ground1
Chiesa
Holland
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.8
/ 10
3.8
/ 10
4.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.6
6.0
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
9
Submission wins
6
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Chiesa
Holland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
6
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
5
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
29/44 fights
Chiesa
Holland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
51
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Holland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
69%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
9
Submission Wins
6
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Chiesa
Holland
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.8
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.6
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
ChiesaHolland
Strike Zones
Chiesa
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedHolland
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Chiesa targets the head (100% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Holland targets the head (78% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 78% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Chiesa
RND
Holland
0/0R00/0
Chiesa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Chiesa · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7Submission
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W · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R1
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UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
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UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
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