UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
San Antonio, USA
28 Jun 2014
Lightweight
VS
27%
Smith
73%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:38
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Ferreira
Ferreira is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 35 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 55 points.
Striking split: Ferreira throws more volume but Smith connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Smith
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+74"
38+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
55.1
70.0
Performance Avg
50.7
100
Quality of Victory
45
28
Momentum Score
87
Smith
Ferreira
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.3
2.1
45%
Strike Accuracy
44%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.2
0 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
2Clinch3
0Ground2
Smith
Ferreira
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.4
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Smith
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
17/26 fights
Smith
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
87
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
Smith
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
70%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.2
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
SmithFerreira
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the body (50% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.9WinLossTrend
Ferreira · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Smith · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Diego FerreiraRating 2.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaRating 3.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R3
Robert WhittakerRating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike RicciRating 4.5Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Ferreira · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonRating 7Decision
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W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Hill · 2023-05
L · KO · R2
Mateusz GamrotRating 3.8KO/TKO
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