METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
San Antonio, USA
28 Jun 2014
Lightweight
VS
26%
Smith
74%
Ferreira
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 0:38
★ Official Result
Diego FerreirawinsSubmissionR1 · 0:38
def. Colton Smith · UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Ferreira
→
Actual result
Ferreira wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Ferreira is a strong favourite at 74% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Smith has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.
Risk flags
Smith's chin rating of 54 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Ferreira has a chin rating of 6 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
SmithFerreira
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Smith
Ferreira
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
+74"
39+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Smith
Ferreira
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
20.4
57.1
70.0
Performance Avg
50.5
100
Quality of Victory
44
28
Momentum Score
100
Smith
Ferreira
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
/ 10
5.8
/ 10
0.8
Style: Pressure
6.3
8.5
Style: Volume
4.1
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
5 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
4
1
Body
3
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance2
2Clinch3
0Ground2
Smith
Ferreira
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
2.3
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
1.8
0
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Smith
Ferreira
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
54
6
KO risk
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
1
KO/TKO Losses
4
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.8 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/11 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Smith
Ferreira
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
Smith
Ferreira
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
64%
0
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Smith
Ferreira
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.8
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.3
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.1
SmithFerreira
Strike Zones
Smith
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedFerreira
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Smith targets the body (50% of attacks) — Ferreira absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Ferreira targets the head (57% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Smith
RND
Ferreira
0/0R00/0
Smith · Last 4
L · Sub · R1
Diego FerreiraSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Stephens · 2014-06
L · Sub · R2
Michael ChiesaSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the Troops 3 · 2013-11
L · KO · R3
Robert WhittakerKO/TKO
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2 · 2013-05
W · Dec · R3
Mike RicciDecision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
Ferreira · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Billy QuarantilloDecision
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L · KO · R2
Alexander HernandezKO/TKO
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L · Dec · R3
Grant DawsonDecision
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W · KO · R3
Mateusz RebeckiKO/TKO
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W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonKO/TKO
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