METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
11%
Tobias
89%
Nurgozhay
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Diyar NurgozhaywinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Rafael Tobias · UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Nurgozhay
→
Actual result
Nurgozhay wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Nurgozhay is a strong favourite at 89% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 43 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Nurgozhay has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 43 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
TobiasNurgozhay
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
23+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
6.1
48.7
0.0
Performance Avg
45.5
0
Quality of Victory
43
0
Momentum Score
49
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
6.0
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
5.0
0.0
Style: Volume
5.0
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
4
Body
14
1
Leg
11
RangeRange
10Distance31
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
2/16 fights
Chin rating based on
4/13 fights
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
49
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
50%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
TobiasNurgozhay
Strike Zones
Tobias
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedNurgozhay
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Tobias targets the head (62% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Nurgozhay targets the body (45% of attacks) — Tobias absorbs 45% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Tobias
RND
Nurgozhay
0/0R00/0
Tobias · Last 2
L · KO · R3
Lucas FernandoKO/TKO
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
L · Dec · R3
Diyar NurgozhayDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
Nurgozhay · Last 4
W · KO · R1
Bruno LopesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gamrot vs. Salkilld · 2026-08
W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasDecision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Uran SatybaldievSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendson RibeiroSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03