UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
20%
Tobias
80%
Nurgozhay
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rafael
Rafael Tobias
"Bipolar"
14 – 2
6'2"74" reachOrthodox23 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 8
Diyar
Diyar Nurgozhay
11 – 2
Well-Rounded29 yrsSouthpaw74" reach6'2"
CFR 31

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nurgozhay

Nurgozhay is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nurgozhay has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Nurgozhay has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Tobias
Nurgozhay
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
74"
Reach
74"
23+
Age
29
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
7.8
30.8
0.0
Performance Avg
28.3
0
Quality of Victory
25
0
Momentum Score
33
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.6
45%
Strike Accuracy
73%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
4
Body
14
1
Leg
11
RangeRange
10Distance31
3Clinch0
0Ground0
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
1/16 fights
Chin rating based on
3/13 fights
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
33
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
Tobias
Nurgozhay
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tobias
Nurgozhay
Striking0.0 / 0.7Volume0.0 / 8.7Grappling0.0 / 2.4Wrestling0.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.0 / 1.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.7
Tobias
Strike Zones
Nurgozhay
Tobias
Attacking
8HEAD4BODY1LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD14BODY11LEGS31 absorbed
Nurgozhay
Attacking
6HEAD14BODY11LEGS31 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD4BODY1LEGS13 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tobias targets the head (62% of attacks) — Nurgozhay absorbs 62% of strikes there
🎯Nurgozhay targets the body (45% of attacks) — Tobias absorbs 45% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tobias
RND
Nurgozhay
0/0R00/0

Nurgozhay · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.4
0102.9L2.8L4.5W2025-032025-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Tobias · Last 1

L · Dec · R3
Diyar NurgozhayRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03

Nurgozhay · Last 3

W · Dec · R3
Rafael TobiasRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
L · Sub · R1
Uran SatybaldievRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Sub · R2
Brendson RibeiroRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · 2025-03

News & Media

Rafael Tobias · Diyar Nurgozhay
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