UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2
Detroit, USA
2 Dec 2017
Flyweight
VS
82%
Cejudo
18%
Pettis
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Henry
Henry Cejudo
"Triple C"
16 – 6
5'4"64" reachOrthodox39 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 65
SP
Sergio Pettis
18 – 5
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'6"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cejudo

Cejudo is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 51 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cejudo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 29 points.

Cejudo has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cejudo's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Pettis has a chin rating of 60 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cejudo
Pettis
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'4"
Height
+5'6"
64"
Reach
+69"
39
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cejudo
Pettis
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.7
14.2
57.5
Performance Avg
40.7
54
Quality of Victory
25
97
Momentum Score
55
Cejudo
Pettis
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.1
54%
Strike Accuracy
40%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
12
1
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
9Distance12
2Clinch1
1Ground0
Cejudo
Pettis
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.4
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Cejudo
Pettis
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
60
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
11 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/22 fights
Chin rating based on
14/23 fights
Cejudo
Pettis
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
97
55
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R2
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Cejudo
Pettis
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
40%
0%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
9

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cejudo
Pettis
Striking5.3 / 1.3Volume6.0 / 9.3Grappling1.4 / 2.4Wrestling1.0 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure4.7 / 1.9
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
6.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Cejudo
Strike Zones
Pettis
Cejudo
Attacking
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 absorbed
Pettis
Attacking
12HEAD1BODY0LEGS13 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD1BODY3LEGS12 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cejudo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Pettis absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Pettis targets the head (92% of attacks) — Cejudo absorbs 92% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cejudo
RND
Pettis
0/0R00/0

Cejudo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0104.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L5.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.1W5.2W5.1W6.5L6.8L6.1L7.0L2014-122016-042018-082023-052025-12
WinLossTrend

Pettis · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W4.2L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.5W4.5W5.4W7.0L4.5W5.5L6.7L4.7W2013-112015-032017-082018-122019-09
WinLossTrend

Cejudo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Payton TalbottRating 7
Decision
UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 · 2025-12
L · Dec · R3
Song YadongRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
L · Dec · R3
Merab DvalishviliRating 6.8
Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
L · Dec · R5
Aljamain SterlingRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 288: Sterling vs. Cejudo · 2023-05
W · KO · R2
Dominick CruzRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

Pettis · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Tyson NamRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens · 2019-09
L · Dec · R3
Rob FontRating 6.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R3
Jussier FormigaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10
W · Dec · R3
Joseph BenavidezRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 225: Whittaker vs. Romero 2 · 2018-06
L · Dec · R3
Henry CejudoRating 7
Decision
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

News & Media

Henry Cejudo · Sergio Pettis
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